Paul Moore: Navigating the late-cycle

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If you see a bloke driving a Holden Ute through Sydney with two dogs in the tray and the words 'GIANTZ' blazed on the number plate, that'll be Paul Moore the CIO of PM Capital. The 30-year funds management veteran was an early backer of the GWS Giants and is a self-confessed footy tragic. When it comes to investing Moore's philosophy is that most of the market is well researched and fairly valued, therefore you need to find anomalies where change is taking place or new information is misunderstood.

This in-depth interview covers his big picture views, characteristics of investments to own and avoid, examples of current pricing anomalies and one major risk being caused by investor crowding.

"The one simple rule you can have in investing is wherever you have the biggest crowd is where you're going to get the worst returns from... The biggest crowd of all has been driven by lower rates, so it's the bond market, passive and ETFs."

Topics discussed

  • The current market cycle, from both the long-term and short-term perspectives.
  • Characteristics of the assets to own and to avoid right now.
  • Identifying investment anomalies and some current examples.
  • Current views on major currencies.
  • Why passive investing and ETFs represent the biggest risk in markets today.
  • One important lesson from 30 years of investing.

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Comments

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Ian Ashman

Would be great to see a debate between pro and anti ETF people. Problem with fund managers talking about how problematic ETF's will be in a crunch is that they are not impartial. I've heard the complete opposite from pro-ETF people. The big issue that never gets addressed by fund managers is - ETF's offer access to the same universe of stocks as fund managers yet charge one half to one tenth the fee and long term they seem to perform as well as managed funds. Why is that?

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James Marlay

Hi Ian, I feel like that debate would never end. We do have articles from time to time that debate the benefits and shortcomings of both active and passive. It's one of those topics that could gone on (and likely will) forever.

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