Risks in Europe to keep breakup in focus

AMP Capital

After the recent experience with the Brexit vote in the UK and election of Donald Trump as President of the US, which are indicative of a nationalist backlash against the pro-globalisation establishment, there is a fear that Europe will go the same way with nationalist forces in Italy, Austria, France, Germany, etc. triggering a break-up of the Eurozone. Of course, a break-up of the Eurozone has the potential to be a more traumatic event than the UK leaving the European Union or the change of Presidency in the US. This is because currencies would have to be re-denominated and borrowing costs pushed up in more heavily indebted peripheral Eurozone countries to reflect a likely sharp decline in the value of their new currencies, which would likely trigger a recession. Some see a Eurozone break-up as inevitable, but is it really? (VIEW LINK)


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