Local market bounced back on positive US and China economic data. The local business capex outlook data was positive but the weak consumer sentiment shows that one has not translated to the other since GFC. The GDP growth rate hit 3% and maintains the recovery pace we have seen in the US since 2014 lows while majority of the market expect this rate to settle between 2-3% range going forwards. The ADP employment data was another beat and markets are optimistic that will flow into non-farm payrolls on Friday. The big move in the US market overnight was in the NASDAQ and that was driven by biotech sector. The US markets will be heading into a long weekend as Monday is Labour Day holiday. Markets may reduce exposure on Friday ahead of a US long weekend with rising geopolitical risks. There was more bravado and rhetoric from North Korea and US while both parties are well aware that neither can afford a confrontation despite the result being obvious. Markets have a higher tendency to pullback early in the month than later in the month. China manufacturing PMI was better than expected and will support commodities while Japanese volatile industrial production was weak and supported the previous comments by BOJ to remain accommodative in the current environment. Weaker USD outlook and stable China means AUDUSD remains more likely to break above 80 cents in the short term than fall to low 70’s. We maintain our positive view on commodities and safe haven investing in gold sector as US market risk plays out. Today was the last day of the month…tomorrow is the last day before US long weekend and non-farm payroll data…S&P index change announcement tomorrow…markets likely to be risk off before the weekend…stay nimble!!!

 

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