Thank Heavens for Debt-Addicted Central Bankers
Gold’s best friends at the present time are the world’s debt-addicted central bankers. Like a bunch of stimulant-addicted athletes looking for their next high, the world’s central bankers have become hugely dependent on stimulus. What started out as a means post the GFC to avoid international economic catastrophe, has now morphed into a dangerous addiction – and the means of keeping the day-to-day economic wheels turning. Keeping rates low for several quarters is very different from keeping them there for years, which in turn has punished savers and distorted market prices, encouraged enormous and destabilizing financial speculation. Central bank policies of inducing negative real rates to ‘incentivize’ borrowing has expanded the money supply and devalued currencies – in turn forcing investors to chase riskier assets in order to generate returns. Little wonder that many mums-and-dads investors, along with the Chinese, Indians and Russians, are increasingly seeking refuge in gold. We retain our likely price target range of $1100-$1300 for 2016, with the opportunity for $1400 during H2 2016.
Gavin has been a senior resources analyst following the mining and energy sectors for the past 25 years, working with Intersuisse and Fat Prophets. He is also the Executive Director, Mining & Metals with Independent Investment Research (IIR).