The Fed will be cautious as the US Economy underperforms
The key for investors moving forward is not the timing of the first hike, but it is the pace and nature of the tightening cycle that matters most and I still think the US economy is well below trend and therefore the Fed will be slow, late, extremely cautious and unconcerned about inflation. They will also be very cautious in their wording, knowing that by cutting rates to zero and doing three QE program they have help inflate an almighty asset bubble and they do not want to see it burst as capital costs rise. But can anyone tell me of a time that a big asset bubble deflated in an orderly way? This is why policy increases will be very gradual even if wages growth steps up another gear. Either way, the US will continue to underperform Europe and Japan in 2015.
The Perpetual Equity Investment Company Limited is an ASX listed investment company offering investors access to a portfolio of predominantly high quality Australian and global listed securities, selected by Perpetual Investment Management Limited.