The Trump Factor - Commodity Scorecard So Far
It’s worthwhile reflecting on the impact of Donald Trump’s election victory on commodities so far. In the immediate aftermath, we witnessed a surge in commodity prices pretty much across the board, with the obvious exception of gold – viewed by some as a likely laggard investment in the growth-fuelled Trump era. Which is why the attached graphic is so interesting, because it illustrates the winners and losers in commodity terms since Trump’s election victory - and there are some surprises. Commodities have gained in general terms, with the major beneficiaries being industrial metals - like lead, zinc, aluminium, palladium and copper - which are all heavily utilised in infrastructure development. Some of these, such as copper, zinc and lead, are also suffering from supply-side issues. Gold too has benefitted as investors take out insurance on Trump's administration. On the other side of the ledger is the poor performance of energy commodities, which ironically correlates to Trump's support for the sector - as his promises to ease drilling restrictions will likely lead to higher supplies in an already glutted market.
Gavin has been a senior resources analyst following the mining and energy sectors for the past 25 years, working with Intersuisse and Fat Prophets. He is also the Executive Director, Mining & Metals with Independent Investment Research (IIR).