There is no hurry for global central banks to raise official interest rates

There is no hurry for global central banks to raise official interest rates. Inflation remains very well anchored due to the deflationary impact of the huge debt build-up over the past 30 years. However, given that households balance sheets in most countries remain over-leveraged, there is unlikely to be a broad-based recovery in growth either - it is likely to continue being a grind. Across the regions, the standout feature of the global economy in the past year has been the UK economy, where growth has rapidly improved and inflation has declined. If growth continued to accelerate in the September quarter, then the likelihood a 2014 rate increase by the BOE would increase. In contrast, the US Fed is likely to raise rates only twice in the second half of 2015 suggesting US equity markets will continue to benefit from ultra-accommodative policy for at least another 12 months. (VIEW LINK)


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