Trending On Livewire: Weekend Edition - Saturday 5th July
Markets climbed in FY25 despite the noise with resources surging, Trump back in the spotlight and momentum holding strong.
For all the tariff-induced volatility, related uncertainty, worries about the end of US exceptionalism, collapse of the dollar, and descent into global chaos, markets smiled and kept climbing over the last financial year.
Yes, things were volatile, but if ever there was a poster child for keeping calm and staying invested, it’s the 13.8% total return the ASX 200 delivered in FY25.
It was the strongest financial year since FY21. Let that sink in.
As for the week just gone, we saw a massive resource rally, with the S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index jumping 5% over Wednesday and Thursday on a broad range of drivers, including copper crossing US$5/lb, stable iron ore prices, China stimulus hopes, growing rate cut expectations, and market rotation dynamics from CBA to BHP.
Elsewhere, Trump's “Trump's ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’” passed the House and Senate, now he's just got to sign it. In the words of the President, “this is a great time to buy”. Stay strong. Stay long.
Have a great weekend.
Chris Conway, Managing Editor, Livewire Markets
From cold call to capital giant: The Metrics story in Lockhart’s words
Despite increased scrutiny, demand for private credit remains strong. For co-founder and CIO Andrew Lockhart, the focus remains unchanged: raise capital, deploy it wisely, and manage risk. “You're fundamentally here to deliver a good outcome for people,” he says. That disciplined approach has helped grow Metrics to $30 billion in assets under management over 12 years. On this episode of The Rules of Investing, Lockhart explores the firm's origins, current market conditions, the impact of falling interest rates, and an exciting new growth opportunity that builds on Metrics’ core strengths and deep institutional relationships. Don’t miss this rare look inside one of Australia’s most successful private credit managers.
No - ETFs are not causing CommBank's "hated" rally
Commonwealth Bank’s relentless rally has drawn plenty of ire, and no shortage of blame directed at ETFs and passive flows. But are they really the culprits? In this analysis, I dive into the data to reveal what’s actually driving CBA’s ascent. Spoiler: it’s not the ETFs. I also tackle the most common arguments, highlighting the role of fundamentals, and explain why ETF ownership simply doesn’t stack up as a convincing cause. If you’ve been puzzled (or frustrated) by CBA’s performance, this piece offers much-needed clarity. Don’t miss this myth-busting take on one of the ASX’s most talked-about rallies.
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Every major asset class made money - did you?
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So much for the crash. Despite predictions that Trump’s trade war would sink global markets, every major asset class ended FY25 in the green. Unhedged international equities led the charge with an 18% return, Australian listed property surged 14%, and domestic bonds rallied 6.8%. The average balanced super fund delivered a solid 10.2%, a welcome payoff for those who stayed the course. It’s a textbook case of markets climbing the wall of worry (and a timely reminder of the power of diversification). But AMP’s Shane Oliver warns the fizz could fade in FY26, with more volatility and slimmer returns on the horizon.
Vishal Teckchandani, Senior Editor, Livewire Markets
Weekly Poll
What are your predictions for equity market returns in FY26?
a) Bullish – 10%+ gains incoming
b) Meh – 5-10% feels about right
c) Bearish – flat or negative returns
d) Doesn’t matter – I diversify and chill
LAST WEEKS POLL RESULTS
We asked "With headline inflation cooling to the lower end of the RBA’s 2–3% target band, is it time for the central bank to give us a break?"
The poll shows 33% said to wait for clarity on trade tensions, 30% warned it could fuel higher house prices, 21% wanted cuts to ease mortgage pressure, and 16% felt the global outlook is still too uncertain.
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