US + 1: The quiet rebalancing

For decades, global strategy has revolved around an assumption that the US is the world’s consumer, market and the centre of gravity
Mugunthan Siva

India Avenue

But the last few years have revealed a subtle, structural shift.
Countries are no longer organising their economic futures around a single pole. They are building optionality — and India’s recent trade diplomacy is the clearest expression of this new world. Welcome to the era of US + 1.

1. From China + 1 to US + 1: A New Strategic Logic

The world is familiar with China + 1: the diversification of supply chains away from China after years of rising costs, geopolitical tension, and tariff volatility. 

A parallel idea is emerging, with countries and companies are now hedging their dependence on the US as well.

Not because the US is declining, but because:

  • Political cycles are increasingly unpredictable
  • Tariff regimes can swing sharply
  • Fiscal pressures are rising
  • Global portfolios are over‑concentrated in US assets
  • Growth is becoming multi‑polar

2. India’s Trade Deals Signal a New Global Architecture

India’s negotiation of five major trade deals in twelve months, culminating in the US agreement. It is a blueprint for the new world order.

Each deal reflects a deeper trend:

  • Countries want access to India’s scale
  • They want to participate in its consumption story
  • They want to integrate into its manufacturing and services ecosystem
  • They want a partner that is aligned, stable, and growing

India is positioning itself as the second anchor.

3. The Rise of a Multi‑Engine Global Growth Model

For the first time in modern history, global growth is being driven by two continental‑scale economies simultaneously:

  • China, still the world’s manufacturing powerhouse
  • India, the world’s fastest‑growing major economy and the next consumption engine

Around them, a ring of emerging economies like Vietnam, Indonesia, the Gulf, Mexico, East Africa that are building partnerships that reflect this new reality.

4. Why US + 1 Is a Rational Strategy for Governments and Investors

The US remains indispensable:

  • Unmatched innovation
  • Deep capital markets
  • World‑leading technology ecosystems

But concentration risk is real. A world where 60–70% of global equity returns come from one market is not sustainable.

US + 1 is the logical response:

  • Keep core exposure to the US
  • Add structural exposure to India and other long‑duration growth markets
  • Diversify political and economic risk
  • Participate in the next wave of global consumption

5. What the Next Decade May Look Like

The 2030 world will not be defined by a single consumer, a single supply chain, or a single political centre.

Instead, it will be shaped by:

  • Two mega‑economies (China and India)
  • A diversified set of partners building bilateral deals
  • Regional supply chains rather than global ones
  • Multiple engines of consumption
  • A more balanced global portfolio
The world is moving from dependence to optionality and from unipolar to multi‑polar. From US‑centric to US + 1.
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Mugunthan Siva
Managing Director
India Avenue

Mugunthan Siva is Managing Director of India Avenue, an Australian-based, boutique investment management company, domiciled in Sydney, with a robust network connectivity in India. He has over 32 years of experience in Australia and is lead...

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