US growth will be well below consensus forecasts

The impact of the higher US dollar and capex reduction from oil has not completely flowed through the US growth figures yet, so the activity expansion is likely to remain softish for at least another month before improving in the second half of this year. As such, I maintain my view that US growth is likely to be around 2.6% for 2015, which will be better than last year but well below consensus forecasts. As such, I think the US Fed should delay its tightening cycle to very late this year, but the US dollar is likely to rally nonetheless given the growth relativities with Europe and Japan. This is why I think Japan, Europe and parts of Asia will outperform the US and Australia.