Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 10 April 2022

Callum Thomas

Topdown Charts

The Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm is a selection of 10 charts which I hand pick from around the web and post on Twitter. The purpose of this post is to add extra color and commentary around the charts.

The charts focus on the S&P500 (US equities); and the various forces and factors that influence the outlook - with the aim of bringing insight and perspective...

1. Correction Drivers Update:

-EPOL [Poland ETF] (geopolitics proxy): relief rally stalled

-LQD [IG Credit ETF] (credit/rates): new lows as bond yields spike

-ARKK [New Tech Fund] (tech burst): lower highs, rolling over again

Thus, my overall sense: path of least resistance = lower

Source: @Callum_Thomas

2. Big Trouble in Small Tech: Seems small cap tech stocks are struggling to keep up. For that matter, small caps in general have been a picture of weakness, and tech still seems vulnerable. I would call this breakdown here a red flag.

Source: @adaptiv

3. Stock Correlations: Can deduce from this chart that the correction saw big rotation, whereas the rebound however floated all boats...

Correlations spike during times of panic selling and panic buying: especially when it's a generalized risk-on/off move, and especially accentuated by passive flows.

Source: @DrewTheCharts

4. Recession vs Correction: "March 8th was likely the bottom unless we witness a recession." (J.P. Morgan's Michael Cembalest). So basically: tell me if we're headed into recession, and I'll tell you what the market's going to do...

Source: @SethCL

5. Stockmarket vs Recessions: Market seems to typically stall about 6-months before the official beginning of a recession according to this chart.

Source: Bear Market Warnings

6. Earnings Revisions: It was always going to be hard to maintain the post-pandemic rebound momentum, but this looks like a fairly clear red flag for growth/earnings...

Source: @MrBlonde_macro

7. Big Stock Earnings Impotence: Seems like the top 10 stocks are no longer on top when it comes to earnings contribution to the S&P 500…

Source: @SoberLook via @jessefelder

8. Peak Profit Margin?

Source: @MaverickBogdan

9. Sectors and Bubbles: Interesting thing to me on this chart is (not annotated) Energy basically had an echo-bubble in the late-2000's. One could argue that Tech is currently in the middle of an echo-bubble... (or maybe it's just the “new normal”, as many assert).

Source: @SamRo

10. Space Investing to the Moon!!

Source: The Space Investor

Thanks for reading!

Callum Thomas

Founder and Head of Research at Topdown Charts

Any feedback, questions and views are welcome in the comment section below.

Callum Thomas
Head of Research
Topdown Charts

Callum is Head of Research at Topdown Charts. Topdown Charts is a chart-driven macro research house covering global Asset Allocation and Economics.

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