Will tonight be the night gold plunges through USD $1200. initial claims below 300,000, and a GDP print of 3.6%, a 30% revision from the previous print of 2.8% could have been expected to put more pressure on bullion, but after originally selling off below USD $1220, bullion bounced back, although it remains on tenterhooks as we await payrolls tonight. The market is short right now, so we could see some covering, but for mine, non-farms need to be +200k to be gold bearish, or under +150k to be gold bullish. As for the GDP print, over 50% of the growth for the past year has come from inventory build up ($300bn), even as the consumer gets weaker. This poses questions over future GDP, and manufacturing pick up we've seen of late. At some point, this stock needs to be sold, and with income growth non-existent, expect some heavy discounting into 2014.
ABC Bullion Chief Economist. Gold bull since early 2000s, have spent +20yrs working in investment analytics, research & portfolio construction. Author of two books on investing in gold and causes of the GFC. Lover of markets, competition & technology
Goldman tracking rate for G4 now 1.3% - Barclays 1.5%..Westpac still calling for taper to start in 2015, so makes sense that they are one of the more dovish/bearish houses
Thanks James - even Westpac out this morning saying GDP for Q4 likely to be sub 1% now.
Interesting points on the inventory Jordan particularly in light of the slightly disappointing sales that were reported over Thanksgiving.