World economy not falling off a cliff

Disappointing payrolls data from the US, weak commodity prices and another downbeat set of business surveys have fuelled fears that global growth is collapsing. However, we continue to think these worries are overdone. While some key emerging economies are in recession and Japan is struggling, the US is still expanding strongly, thanks to rising household consumption, and the recovery in the euro-zone is holding up well. Moreover, we think the true rate of growth in China has stabilised (at a low level) since the beginning of the year, and is likely to rebound in the coming months.