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Macro

Understand the fast-changing domestic and global economic forces under the tectonic plates driving our markets.

Macro

Easing inflation: A clear path to a September cut

The June CPI reading significantly increases the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. This marks the second consecutive month of weaker-than-expected...
Seema Shah
Principal Asset Management
Macro

How FY24 defied the bears' predictions (and the outlook for the year ahead)

A surprisingly great year for global shares despite significant inflation, interest rates and political risks.
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Bob Cunneen
MLC Asset Management
Macro

Easing inflation paves a clear path to a September cut

The June CPI reading puts the Federal Reserve (Fed) on the path to a September rate cut. Not only is this the second consecutive weaker-than-expected reading, but June...
Seema Shah
Principal Asset Management
Macro

Fed policy, the Sahm rule and the risk of recession

Rising unemployment has almost reached the "Sahm rule" threshold that has historically been a useful guide to US recessions.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

5 reasons why the Australian dollar is likely to rise further – if recession is avoided

There is good reason to expect the $A to rise into next year, and a strong case for a slight weighting toward hedged global investments
Shane Oliver
AMP
Macro

A new dawn for markets as global elections continue

Political events can cause uncertainty and disruption, impacting prices and trade with global implications.
Chris Iggo
AXA Investment Managers
Macro

RBNZ starts to set the stage for rate cuts this year

Continued economic weakness has seen the RBNZ open the door for considering rate cuts this year.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

It has rarely been sensible to bet against Uncle Sam

The investment focus naturally shifts to the US in July near Independence Day but more so than ever this year as the completion of elections in the UK and in France...
Tom Stevenson
Fidelity International
Macro

The stage is set for rate cuts

Despite economic uncertainty, markets rallied in the first half of 2024, driven by expected Fed rate cuts and surging AI stocks. The second half of the year is likely...
Seema Shah
Principal Asset Management
Macro

Policy choices and Australia’s growth conundrum

Economists build their forecasts via the inputs to demand. But when population and productivity are moving this fast, a different approach is needed. In this latest...
Tim Toohey
Yarra Capital Management
Macro

AI's power struggle: An energy crisis in the making

AI's explosive growth is threatening to outpace our current power grid capabilities, sparking a looming energy crisis.
Xinyu Ru
Fawkes Capital Management
Macro

The "hope" phase for markets has ended. Here's where we are investing next

It's entirely feasible that most of Europe, the US and Canada will be well on their way with interest rate cutting campaigns.
Tim Toohey
Yarra Capital Management
Macro

US jobs report is consistent with a soft landing

Today’s jobs report is broadly consistent with the soft landing narrative. Monthly payrolls growth weakened slightly in June, and there were downward revisions to...
Seema Shah
Principal Asset Management
Macro

US manufacturing PMI contracts to 48.5, European Core CPI Flash estimate rises steady at 2.9%

We look at five of the biggest developments across global markets for the week ending 5 July 2024
BHP
FMG
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Hue Frame
Frame Funds Management
Macro

Risks around a sharp rise in unemployment

Falling job vacancies could see sharp increases in unemployment in the US and UK, while the EA and Australia look further from this point.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Soft serve

What happened in June.
Kerry Craig
J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Macro

2023-24 saw strong investment returns again – but can it continue?

More central banks moving to cut rates, including the RBA early next year, should provide support for investment returns.
Shane Oliver
AMP
Macro

What to expect from the Fed this financial year

Despite reduced Fed rate cut expectations for this year, the outlook for risk assets remains positive. The same economic strength that is delaying rate cuts should...
Seema Shah
Principal Asset Management
Macro

June 2024 Podcasts

Below is a summary of the topics we covered on Nucleus Investment Insights this month. See the links for more information.
Damien Klassen
Nucleus Wealth
Macro

How should your portfolio be positioned if the RBA's next move is a hike?

AMP's Shane Oliver and Oreana's Isaac Poole are here to quell your concerns and turn them into opportunities.
Hans Lee
Livewire Markets
Macro

Straw that breaks the RBA’s back? Does CPI “shocker” guarantee an August rate hike?

The consensus in the market and among brokers is converging on an interest rate hike in August, but it’s far from a certainty.
Carl Capolingua
Livewire Markets
Macro

Are we heading for Tech Boom 2.0?

There are considerable parallels between the tech boom in the early 2000s and the AI boom of the last year.
Damien Klassen
Nucleus Wealth
Macro

The RBA should hike in August

Underlying inflation is proving more persistent than the RBA had expected.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

High French public debt & political risks

A snap election seems likely to lead to a marked deterioration in an already difficult fiscal outlook for France.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

2024: The year of elections

Recent election surprises in Mexico, India, and the European Union have underscored the volatility that can arise from unforeseen political outcomes. These events...
Seema Shah
Principal Asset Management
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