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Macro

Understand the fast-changing domestic and global economic forces under the tectonic plates driving our markets.

Macro

Frydenberg’s miracle, saving AAA rating

In the AFR this weekend, I write that make no mistake, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has pulled off a minor miracle saving Australia’s prized AAA credit rating, which has...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

What lies ahead for Australia's economy?

In March 2020 the Reserve Bank (RBA) of Australia was the first central bank to cut interest rates explicitly in response to the Covid-19 outbreak. To further support...
Schroders Australia
Schroders
Macro

Beware the inflation snap-back: How to invest (part 4 of 4)

This is the final in our series of four posts on the contrarian view for inflation. This time we look at what to do from an investment perspective. The inflation...
Damien Klassen
Nucleus Wealth
Rapid Fire

Where this fundie sees EM opportunities despite lingering COVID, war risk

The US$1.9 trillion of stimulus the US government tipped into its economy in the first quarter of this year continues to flow through world markets. This bodes well...
Glenn Freeman
Livewire Markets
Macro

Markets are ‘drunk with liquidity’, but is a hangover imminent?

The juxtaposition between asset prices scaling new highs while much of the world remains closed for business has investors and advisers wondering where we are in the...
Livewire Exclusive
Livewire Markets
Macro

Beware the inflation snap-back: The inventory supercycle (part 3 of 4)

This is the third in a series of four posts on the contrarian view for inflation, this time dealing with the inventory supercycle. Part one: See here. This dealt...
Damien Klassen
Nucleus Wealth
Macro

Does adding leverage reduce returns?

A recent academic paper found that adding leverage to an equity portfolio increased volatility but decreased returns for the vast majority of investors. The higher...
FMG
Jonathan Rochford
Narrow Road Capital
Macro

AFR's John Kehoe confirms RBA's QE3 will likely be $135bn or more

In line with our analysis earlier in the week, the AFR's Economics Editor, John Kehoe, far and away the most accurate and precise RBA media conduit, has today...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Off the Charts! The Coppleson v Grantham bubble-battle, a US$12 bn exodus from Asia, and a 'who-needs-Tesla' US$70 bn EV IPO

Bubble, bubble - toil or take profits? This week we heard from bubble spruikers and deniers alike and both posed solid arguments for you to peruse here. Certainly, the...
Livewire Exclusive
Livewire Markets
Expert Insights

Releasing the pressure-valve on the investible universe

Inflation has emerged as the word on everyone's lips as economies reopen and stimulus continues to flow. But Jasmin Argyrou, portfolio manager and director at Credit...
Livewire Exclusive
Livewire Markets
Macro

RBA sets up July to move to open-ended QE, likely exceeding $100 billion

The RBA has provided clear signalling that in July it will move to a new form of open-ended quantitative easing (QE) at the current run-rate of $5 billion of bond...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Beware the inflation snap-back: the China problem (part 2 of 4)

This is the second in a series of four posts I’m publishing on the contrarian view for inflation. Part one: See here. This dealt with inflation today not being the...
Damien Klassen
Nucleus Wealth
The Rules of Investing

6 essential takeaways from my exclusive interview with Jeremy Grantham

It’s not every day you get the opportunity to speak with a legend like Jeremy Grantham. But I’ve been lucky enough to do so twice in recent weeks (the first time,...
Patrick Poke
A Rich Life
The Rules of Investing

Grantham: This is a bubble, this is serious

Jeremy Grantham is famous for his ability to pick bubbles. The co-founder and Long-Term Investment Strategist at GMO Investment and Asset Management correctly called...
The Rules of Investing
Livewire Markets
Macro

Avoiding the taper tantrum

In the AFR this weekend I write that for all the inflation hype, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s challenge has been a persistent paucity of price pressures, and...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

State Street: “Bond risk has doubled but big banks safer than ever”

We’re in a place we could never have foreseen just 18 months ago, and in more ways than one. COVID, of course, blindsided everyone. But looking back a little over a...
Glenn Freeman
Livewire Markets
Macro

Beware the inflation snap-back: today's inflation isn't 1970s (part 1 of 4)

Runaway inflation is the theme du jour. “Protect your portfolio from hyperinflation” scream headlines from investment newsletters. I have an alternative scenario for...
Damien Klassen
Nucleus Wealth
Macro

Surging Canadian dollar a warning for RBA vis-a-vis tapering policy...

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will decide in July whether to extend the 3-year bond yield target and undertake further quantitative easing (QE) when the current...
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

What are the best hedges against inflation?

A year ago, the big worry was depression and deflation, but the big worry now appears to have shifted to inflation. Just as share markets surprised with their rebound,...
Shane Oliver
AMP
Macro

Large structural demand for bonds remains despite economic data beats

Inflation at 4% is transitory, but with a tight supply chain, inflation might settle higher than 2% next year. The risk of U.S. Federal Reserve (U.S. Fed) tapering by...
Kate Samranvedhya
Kate Samranvedhya
Jamieson Coote Bonds
Macro

Challenging the inflation consensus

There are few investors currently prepared to take a contrary view on inflation. Most are expecting it to rise but view it as transitory - a shorter-term consequence...
Alison Savas
Antipodes
Macro

Five critical factors for the rest of 2021

Morgan Stanley has just released its mid-year global update. This is an opportunity for our global team of more than 750 analysts, strategists and economists in 21...
Nathan Lim
Lonsec Holdings
Macro

The most dangerous words in finance and economics

It is often said that the most dangerous words in finance and economics are that “this time is different”. I strongly agree with the sentiment, but it is best viewed...
Jonathan Rochford
Narrow Road Capital
Macro

RBA unlikely to taper stimulus given fragile forecasts

In the AFR this weekend I write that if the RBA’s powerful board was considering the possibility of pre-emptively tapering its monetary policy stimulus, recent...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Australia’s bogus boom

The "recovery" of Australia’s economy from last year’s plunge into recession is much more apparent than real. Before the pandemic, deep-rooted and growing impediments...
Chris Leithner
Leithner & Company Ltd
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