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Macro

Understand the fast-changing domestic and global economic forces under the tectonic plates driving our markets.

Macro

Income from the West: Long-term reliable income streams

The Western Australian (“WA”) economy continues to go from strength to strength as per the latest release of Labour Force data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics...
BHP
COL
RIO
+1
Shane Wakelin
Shane Wakelin
Fawkner Property
Macro

Careful of the T-bone

The G & T might be replaced with the T & T on the Northern Hemisphere cocktail circuit this summer – tapering and transitory will feature prominently in conversations...
Chris Manuell, CMT
Chris Manuell, CMT
Jamieson Coote Bonds
Macro

The next 12 months will be crucial for Quality

The end of the dream run for Growth and a longer-term period of outperformance for Quality could be close, says Fairlight Asset Management portfolio manager Ian...
CAR
CSL
REA
Glenn Freeman
Livewire Markets
Macro

The keys to Australia's household wealth

Australians are amongst the richest in the world, helped in large part by the value of dwellings and our compulsory Superannuation system. Today, Australia's household...
Anthony Doyle
Anthony Doyle
Firetrail Investments
Macro

Five reasons not to panic as central banks head for the easing exits

The drumbeat of central banks heading towards the exits from ultra-easy monetary policy is getting louder. It started with the Bank of Canada, then the Bank of England...
Shane Oliver
AMP
Macro

The inflation head fake: commodity prices, inventory supercycles and how to invest

The US just printed 5% inflation. Any number of pundits are suggesting investments from commodities to value stocks to protect your investment portfolio from rising...
Damien Klassen
Nucleus Wealth
Macro

The crucial question investors are missing in the inflation debate

Google searches for the term “inflation” doubled in May from the 2020 average, hitting the highest level since 2009. More curiously – but obviously linked – searches...
Pete Robinson
Challenger Investment Management
Macro

Forecasting Australian herd immunity and opening up our borders: early to mid 2022

Coolabah has attempted to forecast both the advent of "herd immunity" in Australia and when governments will be comfortable opening-up our borders to both inflows and...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Why no inflation pass-through is a bigger concern for China

Producers in both China and the US are facing higher costs, prompting growing concerns that inflation could threaten the global economy – but China isn’t waiting to...
Ben Wang, Ph.D. CFA FRM
Jamieson Coote Bonds
Macro

Macro Monday: The prospect of higher rates rattles equities

The ASX200 pushed ever higher last week taking its advance to ~12% year to date but following sharp losses in the US on Friday this week’s going to start off on a...
James Gerrish
Market Matters
Macro

Jobs data not as strong as it seems...

In the AFR today I write about what an incredible week it was for markets. The fourth-largest monthly decline in unemployment on record and yet the Aussie dollar fell...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

The underemployment problem

The RBA has published a fascinating new research paper on "underemployment", which has increased noticeably since the GFC. The underemployment rate is defined as the...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

The collapse in foreign workers has boosted job vacancies and reduced unemployment

The closure of Australia's international border has seen a collapse of non-resident employment as foreign workers returned home. This has contributed to the largest...
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

US Corporate Capex Comeback

Corporate capex growth crashed in 2020 for understandable reasons.Commodity capex in particular contracted at a record pace and now its weighting of total S&P500 capex...
Callum Thomas
Topdown Charts
Macro

A unique recovery: the handoffs commence

While the equities rally since the pandemic low has been largely uninterrupted, its leadership has undergone a marked transition. In 2020, stocks rebounded on the...
Matt Peron
Matt Peron
Janus Henderson
Macro

Why PIMCO’s Adam Bowe suspects inflation is a transitory fad

Throughout our discussions with the managers of Australia’s top-rated funds, it’s become evident that their views around the biggest tail risk for markets have...
Livewire Exclusive
Livewire Markets
Macro

Get ready to pivot!

We are in the fourth and final mini reflation cycle of this 12-year bull market. Price signals across capital markets are suggesting we have reached an important...
Justin Braitling
Watermark Funds Management
Macro

Evidence of excess liquidity is everywhere

The famous 1955 quote by then US Federal Reserve Chairman William McChesney Martin was that “The Federal Reserve… is in the position of the chaperone who has ordered...
Jonathan Rochford
Narrow Road Capital
Macro

Frydenberg’s miracle, saving AAA rating

In the AFR this weekend, I write that make no mistake, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has pulled off a minor miracle saving Australia’s prized AAA credit rating, which has...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

What lies ahead for Australia's economy?

In March 2020 the Reserve Bank (RBA) of Australia was the first central bank to cut interest rates explicitly in response to the Covid-19 outbreak. To further support...
Schroders Australia
Schroders
Macro

Beware the inflation snap-back: How to invest (part 4 of 4)

This is the final in our series of four posts on the contrarian view for inflation. This time we look at what to do from an investment perspective. The inflation...
Damien Klassen
Nucleus Wealth
Rapid Fire

Where this fundie sees EM opportunities despite lingering COVID, war risk

The US$1.9 trillion of stimulus the US government tipped into its economy in the first quarter of this year continues to flow through world markets. This bodes well...
Glenn Freeman
Livewire Markets
Macro

Markets are ‘drunk with liquidity’, but is a hangover imminent?

The juxtaposition between asset prices scaling new highs while much of the world remains closed for business has investors and advisers wondering where we are in the...
Livewire Exclusive
Livewire Markets
Macro

Beware the inflation snap-back: The inventory supercycle (part 3 of 4)

This is the third in a series of four posts on the contrarian view for inflation, this time dealing with the inventory supercycle. Part one: See here. This dealt...
Damien Klassen
Nucleus Wealth
Macro

Does adding leverage reduce returns?

A recent academic paper found that adding leverage to an equity portfolio increased volatility but decreased returns for the vast majority of investors. The higher...
FMG
Jonathan Rochford
Narrow Road Capital
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