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Macro

Understand the fast-changing domestic and global economic forces under the tectonic plates driving our markets.

Macro

Will higher cash deposit rates kill demand for zero-income cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum?

In the AFR I write that it turns out 2021 was not the panacea to the pandemic we all hoped for. While we made progress, COVID-19 continued to influence life as we...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Be afraid: the zombie economy can’t last

In the AFR I write that the contradictory cocktail of extremely high inflation, zero interest rates, tight labour markets, robust wages growth, elevated inflation...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

US core inflation literally off the charts...

The Fed's preferred measure of US core inflation printed overnight 0.5% in the *month* of November and an incredible 4.7% over the last 12mths. The first chart below...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Central banks start to take back last year's rate cuts

Central banks have started to take back last year's rate cuts as their economies have recovered from last year's recession, lifting policy interest rates after...
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

MLC: China’s “normal” interest rates boost investment certainty

A more consistent environment for global asset prices and investment is being forged by China’s more “normal” interest rate approach, while other central banks dither...
David Thornton
Livewire Markets
Rapid Fire

3 long-term themes that underpin the "Fourth Industrial Revolution"

Often regarded as investor enemy number #1, uncertainty and volatility are key drivers of the short-term thinking that is so dominant in the retail market currently. ...
Glenn Freeman
Livewire Markets
Macro

Why credit markets won’t deliver but Alternatives might

If income is your primary investment goal, a broad fixed income exposure  is only going to get you halfway there, at best, based on recent returns.  So said JP...
Glenn Freeman
Livewire Markets
Macro

Why are small-cap stocks under pressure?

While the Omicron variant may end up slowing the pace of recovery, we still expect one final rally in reflation sectors, pushing the share market higher into next...
Justin Braitling
Watermark Funds Management
Macro

Good news: China is just readying for the long term

A few points can be said about this current round of regulatory intervention from the authorities. It is important to highlight that intervention on industries, old...
Dr Joseph Lai
Ox Capital
Macro

6 key takeaways from Fidelity's 2022 outlook

Fidelity has just released its 2022 Outlook with an around-the-ground series of summaries from the firm's cadre of portfolio managers. Livewire’s David Thornton has...
David Thornton
Livewire Markets
Macro

The big misalignment between interest rates and inflation

In our 2019 market insight titled ‘Federal Funds Rate projections. They expect what???’, we covered what the US Federal Reserve’s expectations for interest rate...
Hue Frame
Frame Funds Management
Macro

Update on bank liquidity requirements...

While our updated numbers imply the banks need to buy about $408bn of government bonds for liquidity purposes over the next few years, it is interesting to see how...
Dr Stephen Parker
Dr Stephen Parker
Coolabah Capital
Macro

The reopening trade to determine economic growth in 2022

One of the key factors that will make or break the case for the RBA tightening in 2022 will be the reopening trade. Will consumers start spending heavily as is...
Chris Rands
Chris Rands
Yarra Capital Management
Macro

There may come a time to pivot

Across much of the world, lowered mobility restrictions, large consumer savings balances and central bank policies that remain "easy" suggest growth in 2022 will...
Scott Haslem
LGT Crestone
Macro

Cryptocurrency outlook 2022

2021 has been a breakout year for cryptocurrencies, with its dramatic rise through the ranks of popular culture seeing the asset class move from the fringes of society...
Mike Young
Mike Young
Macro

Omicron: Scientists know very little, investors know even less

Investors reacted to the emergence of the Omicron variant as they always do when confronted with potentially bad but unquantifiable news. They assumed the worst. The...
Tom Stevenson
Fidelity International
Macro

Existential conflict between economic data and market pricing

In the AFR I write that financial markets are riddled with seemingly intractable inconsistencies right now. Arguably the best barometer of the global price of money,...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

No sign yet of the "great resignation” phenomenon in Australia

Kieran Davies from Coolabah Capital shares research showing that unlike in the US, there's no sign of the "great resignation" in Australia. Davies says this raises...
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Three risks you can discount – and one you can’t

Peter Lynch once famously declared: “If you spend 13 minutes a year on economics, you’ve wasted ten minutes.” Similarly, Warren Buffett once averred: “If Fed Chairman...
Chris Leithner
Leithner & Company Ltd
Macro

What's up with oil?

For all the excitement about oil, it is sitting around where you might expect, just by eyeballing the average of the past 21 years. There was a supply shakeout in...
ORG
WOR
David Berthon-Jones
Aequitas Investment Partners
Macro

Updated major bank funding task: falls to $135bn pa (vs 10yr av. of $147bn pa)

Following APRA's release of its October Monthly Authorised Deposit-taking Institution Statistics, we have updated our estimates of the four major banks' debt funding...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Inflation: what does it mean for my investment portfolio?

If you turn on the finance news or open any financial paper today, the word “inflation” is everywhere. After three decades of hibernation, it would appear the...
John Garrett
MA Financial Group
Macro

The 60/40 portfolio is dead, so here's where to invest your non-equities cash

While the 60/40 portfolio may be dead, the jury is still out on just what your fixed-income exposure should be. Lazard’s multi-asset maestro, Ronald Temple, however,...
Glenn Freeman
Livewire Markets
Macro

Financial repression is harder this time around

Financial repression has been used in the past as a tool for reducing government debt overhangs. Yet there are some specific conditions required for such an approach...
Clive Smith
Macro

2022 Global outlook - Omicron update

Nineteen months since the end of the COVID-19 recession, Morgan Stanley's Nathan Lim believes we are currently well into the middle of the current economic cycle. In...
Nathan Lim
Lonsec Holdings
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