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Macro

Understand the fast-changing domestic and global economic forces under the tectonic plates driving our markets.

Macro

What's with the Global Supply Chain issues? Two reasons why they may stick around.

Supply chain issues were cited by company management numerous times during the recent reporting season and were attributed as one of the key reasons behind operational...
RMD
Alastair MacLeod
Elston Asset Management
Macro

Investors get ready for 11pc return from property stocks

"Investors get ready for 11pc return from property stocks" - This was a headline in the AFR this week that probably caught many investors, particularly real estate...
COL
WES
Shane Wakelin
Shane Wakelin
Fawkner Property
Macro

RBA increases QE3 stimulus by 40 per cent

In the AFR I write that after months of debate about whether the Reserve Bank of Australia would increase or decrease its stimulus in recognition of the COVID-induced...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Three reasons why I am still bullish on this market

Over the past 12 months, the All Ordinaries index and the S&P 500 have risen around 26 and 35 per cent, respectively. Not bad when you consider the economic ravages...
Roger Montgomery
Montgomery Investment Management
Macro

APRA closes the Committed Liquidity Facility

In a move that's a bit more aggressive than I had expected, APRA just announced that they will close the CLF (Committed Liquidity Facility).   The CLF will be...
Matthew Johnson
Matthew Johnson
Coolabah Capital
Collections

Bull or bear? 3 fundies on how they’re positioned for the (next) recovery

The “reopening trade” was a dominant topic among investors as recently as just a few months ago, as we lifted our heads and began to imagine a life without lockdowns,...
WOR
Glenn Freeman
Livewire Markets
Macro

This is not an exit

Momentum in global growth has unexpectedly softened in recent months. Persistent supply chain disruptions are hampering production, slowing spending and delaying...
Kerry Craig
J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Macro

RBA gets third time lucky with dovish taper implying $147bn of QE buying

After two consecutive months of surprises provoked by the RBA trying (unsuccessfully) to shift from its prior posture of data-dependent "nowcasting" to boldly...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

APRA should wind down the CLF in 2yrs

Recent data suggests that APRA and the RBA can shrink the Committed Liquidity Facility (CLF) faster than I had previously figured. The entire point of the CLF was to...
+1
Matthew Johnson
Matthew Johnson
Coolabah Capital
Macro

CEO Insights - ASX Reporting Season Special

As part of the NAOS investment process, we pay particular attention to the comments made by company CEOs and business leaders in order to gain a greater understanding...
Robert Miller
NAOS
Macro

Credit Suisse: RBA won't hike until 2025

Economists and investors (and media) don't just enjoy interest rate speculation (I mean, we do enjoy it as well). But we also need to keep an eye on the Central...
Livewire Exclusive
Livewire Markets
Macro

Bumpy road ahead for China

The heightened US-China relationship tensions since the Trump administration have forced China to re-finesse its domestic economy priorities. This backdrop makes the...
Ben Wang, Ph.D. CFA FRM
Jamieson Coote Bonds
Macro

Is Australia off course?

After a sharp rebound during H1 2021, Australia’s near-term economic outlook has worsened significantly. The COVID-19 Delta outbreak has extended across the eastern...
Scott Haslem
LGT Crestone
Macro

Better aligning fiscal, monetary, and bank regulatory policy

The COVID-shock of 2020 put a spotlight on a design flaw in Australian banking regulations. At a time when governments are borrowing lots of money, and the RBA is...
Matthew Johnson
Matthew Johnson
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Four risks in a market priced for perfection

Since the lows of early 2020, markets have experienced a pretty strong recovery. Yet, with equity markets at an all-time high, while most of us are locked up at...
Simon Doyle
Schroders
Macro

7 reasons to look beyond the lockdown blues

Three months ago there was much optimism about the Australian economic outlook. GDP regained its pre-pandemic level, confidence was strong, the jobs market was...
Shane Oliver
AMP
Macro

How to understand the change in home approvals

The building approvals data is a monthly release issued by the Australian Bureau of Statistics detailing the change in building permits (approvals) issued, and is...
David Berthon-Jones
Aequitas Investment Partners
Macro

Patient Powell plays it safe

Markets have been rather listless these last few months, contrasting with the beginning of calendar 2021, when financial markets moved directionally based on key...
Jesse Imer
Jesse Imer
Macro

Fed disconnects timelines for tapering and rate rises

In his speech at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium, Federal Reserve chairman Powell sent three key messages. Firstly, he confirmed that the test of "substantial...
Anthony Doyle
Anthony Doyle
Firetrail Investments
Macro

Will a global housing ‘bubble’ finally force central bankers’ hands?

House prices have been one of the unexpected beneficiaries of the pandemic. Lockdowns and the working-from-home revolution have spurred demand for more space, a larger...
Mark Ambrose
Mark Ambrose
Global Value Fund
Macro

Analysis: Why the RBA is likely to stick to its taper decision in September

The hurdle for the Reserve Bank of Australia to backtrack on the bond-buying taper decision remains high and keeping it elevated would be the rapidly accelerating pace...
Sophia Rodrigues
Sophia Rodrigues
Central Bank Intel
Macro

Macro market indicators

One of our preferred market valuation indicators is the CAPE model derived from macroeconomic fundamentals. The basic idea is that lower levels of interest rates...
QAN
SCG
+2
David Berthon-Jones
Aequitas Investment Partners
Macro

Is the RBA taper vs non-taper decision a non-event for September?

The RBA "taper vs non-taper" decision for its bond purchase, or quantitative easing (QE), program will be resolved in September with many banks (eg, UBS, DB, CBA,...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Substantial NSW govt. COVID financial support is tracking well below the weekly budgeted cost

With last year showing the importance of government support in limiting the economic fall-out from the pandemic and contributing to economic recovery, the NSW...
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Expert Insights

Could a policy error spell trouble for markets?

The biggest question on most investors’ minds in the first half of 2021 has been ‘will inflation be transitory or lasting?’ While the issue is far from settled, the...
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