The prospect of a trade war has become more significant again. While China may fare worse than the US in this scenario, there are some broader implications that could enhance China's power on the global stage, not least via the One Belt One Road initiative. Here I discuss this and... Show More
One month into 2018 and the AUD has punched above 80 US cents and is looking pretty perky. It is trading around its highs against the beleaguered USD since 2014. So, why is it up here again? Can it last? Is it time to sell? Or strap in for a... Show More
Here are ten things that I think will shape the global and Australian economies in 2018, and that expect I’ll be talking about at conferences and events over the course of the coming year. Show More
For the past 16 years we have produced “The Big Issues” report – a report that has sought to highlight the issues that are expected to influence the economy over the forthcoming 12 months. Show More
We believe that global diversification should be at the core of each investor’s strategy. A globally diversified portfolio is likely to be better positioned to weather large movements in markets, and provide a more stable set of returns over time. However, one of the implications of a globally diversified portfolio... Show More
US ten-year bond yields have fallen approximately 25bp since March and are at around 2.1%. Australian government bond yields have likewise fallen by around 60bp to 2.4%, after briefly looking to breach 3% back in February. However, what is more notable is the narrowing of the spread between the two,... Show More
David Wanis, Portfolio Manager at Schroders Australia discusses where to find value in global markets today. While all markets appear fairly fully-priced, David makes the argument that domestic equities have a better three-year outlook than international equities. He also discusses why he believes the Australian dollar is under pressure in... Show More
Historically the Aussie Dollar has been regarded as a play on both commodities (specifically iron ore) and its higher interest rates relative to the rest of the world. In the past 12 months, though, the correlations of the currency with those two key factors has broken down. As iron ore... Show More
The Australian dollar was hit hard this week by the market's scramble to price in a Federal Reserve rate rise this month, which boosted the US dollar across the board but last night hit the Aussie harder than most. I note the key comments from the Fed and look at... Show More
There are still two days of the earnings season to go. Remarkably all but 8 of the 135 companies produced a profit for the six months to December. That is, around 94 per cent of companies made money. Excluding BHP Billiton, aggregate profits lifted by 37 per cent. Almost 89... Show More
Brunch and the hashtag "#angryavos" has swept through the Australian press this week after Bernard Salt suggested forgoing $22 brunches was the solution to the millennials housing woes. The response article on the Guardian, pointing out that it would take 175 years of forgone brunch to save a deposit, has... Show More
Currency and interest rates are currently playing a large role in the world economy, which should be no surprise because we are covering new ground in terms of record low rates and subsequent currency fluctuations. At present, 40 per cent of the developed world’s interest rates are negative. Show More
Following the reduction of the cash rate in Australia to 1.5% this week, Saxo's Global macro strategist Kay Van-Petersen is now expecting the Aussie dollar to strengthen against the USD. Not because of the Aussie dollar's own strength; this is more of a relative game. Watch the following video to... Show More
Over the past five years, inflation has been slowing in Australia despite relatively strong employment and GDP. Many forecasters had expected a falling Australian dollar to lead to higher inflation; however, this has not been the case. In our view, the reason for this is that the real driver of... Show More
The AUDUSD looked weak in the last couple of sessions, following the Brexit UK referendum, but it found the support again above the 0.73 cents handle. According to Saxo Capital Markets traders based in Sydney, the resistance levels remain at 0.7380, 0.74 and 0.7460 while the support levels are the... Show More
There is plenty going on in the Australian Economy right now and a raft of surprising data has presented investors with a curious puzzle. In early May the RBA cut interest rates after an extended period of stability. The move, which was prompted by weak inflation data, has seen the... Show More
On a very quiet morning when both the US and UK have enjoyed long weekends, we thought we would revisit the potential path for Australian interest rates. Investors typically have short term memories and forget markets are cyclical. Iron ore should be a great reminder - from $US15/t to $US190/t... Show More
Faith in the sharemarket has been battered by the bear market in banks, major miners and other blue chips. Fear continues as it seems volatility in global markets will never cease... Everything that we are hearing in the financial news is enough to shake anyone’s confidence. So is our nation’s... Show More
A little reference for all the NCAA basketball fans out there, but also an apt title for a blog looking back at the global equity rally in March. Australian investors perhaps didn't get a sense of the scale given the Australian dollars rise offset a large chunk of the move;... Show More
Matt Haupt, Portfolio Manager at Wilson Asset Management, believes that the recent bounce in markets is a short term relief rally and expects the RBA to step in with more rate cuts later in the year. Haupt says the recent rally has been supported by short covering, flows in to... Show More