Australian Interest Rates

Latest news and analysis on Australian Interest Rates

Macro

Surprise, elevated inflation in Australia isn't going away

Australia’s inflation re-accelerates, testing the RBA’s credibility as rising CPI and core prices challenge dovish policy bets.
Damien Boey
Wilson Asset Management
Macro

When credibility isn’t at stake

RBA’s dovish stance faces scrutiny as growth holds firm, inflation risks linger, and bond markets price in aggressive rate cuts.
Damien Boey
Wilson Asset Management
Macro

Time for a victory lap on inflation?

Rate cut priced in, but our models show inflation could remain near the top of the RBA’s target band.
Damien Boey
Wilson Asset Management
Macro

June labour market data puts pressure on the RBA to cut in August, but …

Weak June labour data raise odds of an August RBA cut, but policy rules suggest cash rate is already too low.
Damien Boey
Wilson Asset Management
Macro

The return of the term premium

The return of the term premium, which could increase given the deteriorating fiscal outlook, points to the risk of higher US bond yields.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

RBA surprises by not cutting rates

RBA defies cut bets and holds in its July meeting; resilient data point to rising short yields and curve flattening.
WLE
Damien Boey
Wilson Asset Management
Equities

Faster and deeper rate cuts are bullish for Australian equities

Here I unpack the possibility of faster and deeper RBA cuts, and what it would for equity investors.
Jun Bei Liu
Ten Cap
Fixed Income

Australian rates to fall to neutral but not much more

Find out why we maintain a less dovish view than the RBA on interest rate expectations and favour Australian bonds over U.S. bonds.
Damien Boey
Wilson Asset Management
Macro

The RBA marks down the neutral cash rate again

RBA staff have revised down the estimated neutral rate cash rate to c2¾%, although it is not clear if policy-makers take it at face value.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Betashares economist says RBA could slash rates to 2% if US enters recession

David Bassanese says his base case is the RBA takes rates to 3.35% this year, while other economists warned the cut is a mistake.
Tom Richardson
Livewire Markets
Buy Hold Sell

Buy Hold Sell: 7 ASX names set to thrive amid lower rates

Matthew Haupt from Wilson Asset Management and Tim Johnston from Tyndall Asset Management analyse stocks set to benefit from rate cuts.
APA
GMG
+4
Buy Hold Sell
Livewire Markets
Buy Hold Sell

With more rate cuts on the way, how are the pros adjusting portfolios?

Matthew Haupt from Wilson Asset Management and Tim Johnston from Tyndall Asset Management discus how lower rates will impact ASX investing.
ALX
VCX
Buy Hold Sell
Livewire Markets
Buy Hold Sell

Buy Hold Sell: 3 ASX winners (and 2 losers) ahead of the RBA's next cut

Matthew Haupt from Wilson Asset Management and Tim Johnston from Tyndall Asset Management discuss rate cut winners and losers.
CPU
JBH
RMD
+1
Buy Hold Sell
Livewire Markets
Equities

'Not our base case': Fed unlikely to unleash printing presses, QE, to offset US/China trade war

Talk the Fed could restart QE programs to cap bond yields if they rebound on new inflation worries has been dismissed by economists.
Tom Richardson
Livewire Markets
Equities

'Trade war': RBA tipped to slash rates in 2025, house prices to rise, petrol prices, inflation to fall

NRMA is calling for petrol prices to tumble within weeks, as traders bet on three cash rate cuts to boost house prices.
STO
Tom Richardson
Livewire Markets
Macro

Why we now expect four more RBA rate cuts this year

If the RBA were uncertain on Tuesday, then their heads must surely be spinning after Liberation Day.
Tim Toohey
Yarra Capital Management
Macro

'We do feel optimistic': RBA cuts rates and delivers positive inflation forecasts

The RBA now forecasts core inflation to fall to 2.7% by June 2025 and stay at that rate through to 2027.
Tom Richardson
Livewire Markets
Macro

'Very weak': Warren Hogan dismisses RBA rate cut case

Mr Hogan labelled inflation "the biggest strategic threat to the economy" and said the RBA has insufficient evidence it's contained.
Tom Richardson
Livewire Markets
Outlook Series

Chief CommSec Economist shares 2025 Outlook

CommSec’s Ryan Felsman discusses market rotations, key risks, and what lies ahead for 2025.
James Marlay
Livewire Markets
Property

Where Australian house prices could go in 2025

December saw the first monthly fall in house prices in two years - but the setup for 2025 is far more nuanced than it first seems.
Hans Lee
Livewire Markets
1-20 of 188