The Royal Commission into Banking. My lord! But rather than opine over the content, we are interested in the potential impact. Several months ago our economist Tim Toohey estimated the impact on consumer spending when interest only loans switched to principle and interest. We were pleased to see Deputy Governor... Show More
While the global economy is seeing its fastest growth in years and the US Federal Reserve has increased rates five times since December 2015 and is on track for more hikes this year, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has now left interest rates on hold for a record 21... Show More
The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.25% as expected to the upper band target of 1.75%, 0.25% higher than that of the RBA cash rate. The Fed rationalised the increase noting the strengthening of the economic outlook in recent months. Show More
The volatility genie has now been released and is unlikely to go back in the bottle as late cycle fiscal expansion in the US combined with higher global funding rates from the US Federal Reserve will have markets on their toes going forward. Show More
Rates are rising in the US, but it is less clear when Australia will follow suit. At our recent Investment Forum, we hosted six of Australia’s top investment strategists to discuss when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) might hike, and to ask several other key questions, including where they... Show More
If Australia has an Achille’s heal it’s the high and still rising level of household debt that has gone hand in hand with the surge in house prices relative to incomes. Whereas several comparable countries have seen their household debt to income ratios pull back a bit since the Global... Show More
Higher wages growth in the United States seems to have caused the sell-off and subsequent sharp lift in volatility in global bond and share markets. Annual growth in in US average hourly earnings accelerated to 2.9% y-o-y moving in to territory that has presaged higher inflation in the past and... Show More
The average variable home loan rate in Australia has fallen from 8.3% to 5.1% in the past ten years, enabling households to borrow more and drive house prices higher. Despite higher levels of household debt, Australians’ level of mortgage stress is quite low. But what if interest rates go up?... Show More
Each week we produce a topical piece on what economic factors are driving the markets in Australia. Our senior economist Stephen Roberts also produces a podcast where he discusses these topics in greater detail. You can listen to Steve's dulcet tones HERE. Show More
A number of popular scapegoats emerged in the aftermath of the financial crisis: conflicted credit rating agencies, a corporate culture and regulatory environment that encouraged risk taking over risk management, lax lending standards, rapid growth in credit, and what some considered to be excessively loose monetary policy from the U.S.... Show More
In this short video we discuss the challenges facing investors as the interest rate cycle globally continues to normalise, over the medium term, transitioning higher from the ultra-low settings that prevail in most developed economies at present. Range of choices on offer for the average investor seeking to add fixed... Show More
The Reserve Bank has left the cash rate on hold at 1.5% in July as widely expected. CommSec expects rates to stay on hold throughout the 2017/18 financial year. Show More
EOFY Series: The Australian sharemarket Show More
CommSec Chief Economist Craig James takes a look at the economic events scheduled for the week ahead, including RBA Board Meeting, Retail Sales and International Trade data. Show More
It may be timely to enter the US$ trade. The A$ has been propped up by the Chinese stimulus from early 2016, which has seen an explosive recovery in commodity prices. Chinese growth is forecast to slow.If you look through the half yearly reports, the major producers have expressed concerns... Show More
The interest rate cutting cycle appears to be over. This is not because inflation is accelerating – on the contrary, inflation remains low and looks like staying low for some time. Rather, interest rates are on hold is because the RBA is looking at a range of indicators that are... Show More
At the end of 2015, Livewire ran a survey asking readers and contributors for predictions on specific macro events. With a few months left of the year, it’s time to check in on how everyone is performing. So far, Livewire readers have struck an impressive three out of four. With... Show More
Currency wars, increased market uncertainty and pending foreign election outcomes may see an adoption of more unconventional economic monetary policy in Australia. We believe investors need to take a conservative approach to portfolio construction, with a greater spread of assets and heightened awareness of risk in the bond market. Show More
On the first Tuesday in August, the RBA cut the official cash rate to a record low of 1.50%. Why did they do it? And are there any more rate cuts to come? The RBA decision was almost entirely due to weak inflation. Late in July, the ABS reported that... Show More
The Reserve Bank of Australia has cut the official cash rate to an unprecedented 1.5% to maintain downward pressure on the currency and spur sluggish inflation and business investment. As was forecast by most analysts, the board lowered the cash rate by 0.25 of a percentage point from 1.75% on... Show More
