While many investors fret about bonds or bond-like proxies from rising interest rates, the real danger lurking in the shadows is the prospect of rising risk premiums. Interest rates globally have already normalised, or maybe there is a little more to go. However, bond-like stocks already have wide risk premiums.... Show More
Local market ran into a brick wall after lunch despite solid China data. China Caxin Manufacturing data was better than expected and in expansion territory…good for commodities who had another good night. Bond yield proxies and currency proxies were under pressure from the start while banks joined the slide after... Show More
Globally, the backdrop in 2017 is being dominated by politics as the world focuses on an erratic and inexperienced new US President. Closer to home, attention has turned to reporting season, where results are already beginning to flow through. Expectations for earnings growth are high among resources stocks following a... Show More
A stand-out feature of global equity markets in the past few months has been a marked rotation away from expensive ‘quality’ stocks into cheaper ‘value’ stocks. As the chart below shows, quality stocks strongly outperformed up to the middle of 2016. However, by November, value stocks had caught up and... Show More
Countless thousands of words have been written over the last six days about the investment implications of the new American President. The consensus seems to be it’s all over for bond proxies like REITs, infrastructure stocks, utilities and Telstra now the Trump reflationary trade is pushing bond yields higher and... Show More
The rally in interest-rate-sensitive stocks could never last. The bubble would always expire when central banks refrained from more meddling and we may have reached this point. Bond yields are rising as policymakers, acknowledging that monetary policy has reached its limits, are turning to fiscal policy to prod economies. Amid... Show More
