What would you nominate as the most under-appreciated risk in the market today? There seems to have been an endless carousel of macro ‘bogeymen’, yet markets keep inching higher. So which risks really matter, and which ones have investors overlooked? Show More
Mark Haefele, the Global Chief Investment Officer at UBS penned a short note on the US market’s drastic pullback, calling for calm and suggesting it is not time to reduce exposure, not unless rates or inflation keep rising. Here’s his comment in full: Show More
There’s an overwhelming sense of déjà vu as far as the gold market is concerned. Two years ago during December 2015, we witnessed the first US Fed rate hike since the 2008 GFC – a 25-basis point increase. This followed years of promises, threats and jawboning by the US Federal... Show More
Gold’s best friends at present are the US Federal Reserve and Donald Trump. The US dollar is weakening as the opposition of two more Republican senators to the US healthcare bill this week meant the measure is effectively dead in its current form. Show More
US ten-year bond yields have fallen approximately 25bp since March and are at around 2.1%. Australian government bond yields have likewise fallen by around 60bp to 2.4%, after briefly looking to breach 3% back in February. However, what is more notable is the narrowing of the spread between the two,... Show More
Will a slump in house prices be the straw that breaks the economy’s back and be the trigger for an economic hard landing in Australia? Probably no, but it is a question that will likely dominate the news over the remainder of 2017 and into 2018. Show More
You might recall that the US Fed made noises throughout 2015 about interest rate 'liftoff', resulting in an initial 25-basis point rise in late 2015. It told markets to expect 3-4 interest rate hikes during 2016 - it's now September and we've not seen the first. Markets have become accustomed... Show More
It’s been a quiet month for gold, with the yellow metal up slightly, despite a reduction in net longs, minor ETF outflows, and a rally in risk assets. Sentiment has definitely turned though, with a buy-the-dips mentality emerging amongst banks, including UBS and Credit Suisse, whilst Peter Grandich thinks “the... Show More
Metal prices have been rallying as the U.S. dollar has turned down. Without supportive global growth momentum, the mining industry will have to rely on a continuation of unlikely exchange rate movements for ongoing improvement in metal prices. This is the ‘Where are we in the Cycle’ theme from this... Show More
Since the beginning of the month the Japanese Yen has only traded downwards against the US dollar. Even with the shock move into negative rates territory by the Bank of Japan has been unable to exercise any lasting effect on weakening the JPY exchange rates. Saxo’s Head of FX Strategy... Show More
This week gold has reached the lower end of its current range. The news from the currency market is that real money dollar buyers have only just started to react to the recent weakness in EURUSD. Saxo's head of commodity strategy Ole Hansen says that whether this will translate into... Show More
The devaluation of the Yuan is setting in motion events that will directly affect the US economy. Saxo’s chief economist Steen Jakobsen says the consensus on the recycling of excess capital from Asia to the US bond market will change. There will also probably be “a significant reduction in China’s... Show More
A downward trend might just be on the verge for the US Dollar against the Japanese yen (USDJPY). The greenback has broken below the base of the daily ichimoku cloud three times in the past three trading days, but without closing outside of it. If it so happens to do... Show More
A mini 'flash crash' in the dollar last week has eased pressure on dollar shorts, including emerging markets generally and allowed a 'relief rally'. However, the dollar uptrend still looks intact. We remain concerned that the ECB's style of QE is not only failing to stimulate the economy but, through... Show More
Despite a surprise decision by the Reserve Bank of Canada to cut interest rates this week, the case for a corresponding RBA cut at its next policy meeting on Tuesday, February 3 is not especially strong. Our view is based on several factors, the most important of which is that... Show More
