Ten years on from the Global Financial Crisis and the threat of another financial crisis in the medium term is now a solid possibility. There are signs of weakening economic growth in China and the US, with Europe and Japan showing no signs of getting out of their long term... Show More
Is the next US downturn years away, or just around the corner? Either way, leading US economist, Professor Jeffrey Frankel, says it will be severe. And the reason, he says, is the Trump administration’s relentless pursuit of fiscal expansion and financial deregulation. Show More
2018 has been a fascinating year so far with many different cross-currents running through markets. We have seen central banks hiking, just as Governments look to expand fiscally. At the same time, the big economic powerhouses go head-to-head on trade. Where does this all lead us? Below we walk through... Show More
This article is by guest contributor, Warren Hogan for FIIG Securities. Warren is an economist and financial strategist, and ex ANZ Chief Economist. Show More
2017 saw a combination of solid economic growth without a significant pick-up in inflation. This let the Fed continue to raise rates, but at a measured pace, and it has flagged it’s likely to raise rates another three times this year. Other major central banks did not follow this path... Show More
Fiscal spending will top the agenda in Q4 for global investors, says Saxo Bank Group’s head of macro analysis Christopher Dembik. So where are the opportunities? Interest rates are at a low level, he says, so governments have a great chance to invest further to boost economic activity. China has... Show More
For the last two decades, advanced country central banks have been focussed on price stability and have played the first line of defence in stabilising the economic cycle whereas fiscal policy has played backup, focussing more on fairness and efficiency. This same approach has been applied since the global financial... Show More
Global markets are running on central bank stimulus hope while earnings remain weak. The inability of central banks to pull their economies away from stimulus dependencies has created an inefficient distribution of resources. Lack of fiscal reform and unwillingness of governments to make the hard decision is forcing central banks... Show More
My chart is from the RBA’s Statement on Monetary Policy. It captures a fundamental problem of what is now a sustained trend in falling income and stalling productivity. It confirms how poor the macroeconomic policy framework has been in recent times with nothing in the pipeline set to reverse these... Show More
Despite short term stimulus reprieves, the medium to long term dynamics point to slowing global growth, weaker commodity prices and lower interest rates. The conflicting monetary and fiscal policy settings will continue to weigh on any global growth recovery. The risk of the US Fed move, the negative outlook for... Show More
Iconoclastic economist and Boston University professor Larry Kotlikoff, describes the US as arguably in worst fiscal shape than any other developed country. He estimates the fiscal gap at US$200 trillion, 17 times the reported US$12 trillion in official debt. What would it take to come up with US$200 trillion in... Show More