This week it's the US Dollar Index. Unless you've been living under a rock (or maybe that saying should be updated - unless you've been living out of range of wifi), you will have noticed 2 key things about the US dollar index: 1. The US dollar bull market seemed... Show More
Local market climbed back higher gradually on the back of strong metal prices. Local market still struck in the narrow trading range since May. US market and geopolitics remain the macro overhang while reporting season is driving substantial volatility. Growth stories missing guidance or weak outlook statement are facing 15-20%... Show More
Local market climbed out of US weak sentiment to deliver a positive day on the back of better commodities and China data. US data out tonight will deliver more clarity on the US Fed outlook while underwhelming US reporting season needs to maintain the pace to support the market multiples.... Show More
Market Summary Show More
Local market started positive and maintained the pace with better commodities and higher rates outlook. US market remains the overhang and NASDAQ falls to the 50 day MA for the third time since US elections…last time NASDAQ broke 100 day MA, we had the high PE growth sell off…local investors... Show More
Local market opened positive on better commodities and currency before pulling back to finish flat. Commodities drove market higher while banks gave up initial optimism. The best performing sectors were Staples, Utilities and Miners while the worst performers were Gold, IT and Property Trust. On the stocks….(1) MTS > sales... Show More
Local market was once again up on global investor currency trade. Weaker USD is bad for Japanese Manufacturers and good for Aussie Banks. Even miners recovered on stable China data while beaten up retailers saw some love on value and on rate-cut hope after another weak consumer sentiment. The best... Show More
As the Fed meets to make its June monetary policy decisions, the consensus (and my view) is that they will hike interest rates again. This will add to the interest rate differential support for the US dollar and driver further policy divergence. This comes at a time where the US... Show More
Local market started weak and then sentiment nosedived as more details of the White House debacles filtered through the media and drove US futures lower. The big risk with US politics at this point is…anything could happen. Market hates uncertainty…and volatility indices are at historical lows…something should give and the... Show More
Implied volatility is a well known indicator for the stock market e.g. the CBOE VIX Index, with spikes and troughs in the index generating useful market timing signals. But what about the foreign exchange markets? Today's chart shows the average US Dollar option volatilities across developed market currencies, and the... Show More
Market moved up again on weak sentiment with fundamentals remaining negative. Geopolitical risks in Turkey and Germany will add to the uncertainty for global markets. Local markets have reached 5600 again and weakening local economic outlook and emerging market risk will weigh on the index. The local market is at... Show More
The below chart appeared in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes http://www.topdowncharts.com/single-post/2016/11/25/Weekly-Macro-Themes---25-November-2016 and shows the well known US Dollar Index (or DXY) vs the average 10-year government bond yield differential across the G10 currencies. There appears to be a pretty clear relationship between the interest differential indicator and... Show More
Market was back in the aimless mode without mother goose US to set the path tonight. Thanksgiving holiday tonight in the US means the world will be confused tonight. Tomorrow night may also be lacking sentiment in the US as investors would have taken the day off to make the... Show More
Market jumped higher on the back of US market bounce while overall macro concerns remain. There were clear signs that short covering popped the market from the open before rising tide raised all sectors into positive territory. Global macro remains uncertain with new US leadership policy settings delivering contradictory and... Show More
Market took some punishment today ahead of the US Fed update. The macro risk of US Fed and BOE update before US elections have been weighing on the market. Small caps are down over 10% from the highs while large caps are down over 5%. The recent extra pain in... Show More
The US 10 year bond yields originally experienced a trend change (i.e. expectation for further upside) on 5/8/16 at 1.59%. Last night a further upside technical break above key resistance occurred, which indicates the potential for the next upward move in US bond yields. Major resistance is now located at... Show More
Aussie market fell on the open and then pretty much traded sideways with a few failed recovery cycles. The market sentiment continues to be aimless as it waits for US clarity post relatively weak employment data. US markets were closed last night for Labor Day long weekend and the markets... Show More
The US dollar lost its safe haven play last week when it encountered major resistance from its 200 days moving average level, according to Saxo Capital Markets Sydney-based trader James Kim. In the next few days, the US Dollar Index might be testing re-entering the channel it broke during the... Show More
Global macro strategist Kay Van-Petersen of Saxo Capital Markets believes we probably will see two Fed rate hikes this year. He expects that the US dollar will continue to strengthen and he finds it very possible that we will test new highs. He is long DXY futures. Click the following... Show More
Aussie market showed some strength today to finish slightly in the black despite negative global lead and weaker commodities. Commodities are in for a double hit as the Chinese government takes away the sugar hit that boosted Q1 growth while also squeezing the speculators out of the commodity market. The... Show More
