21 ASX stocks that should be on your radar

Stock ideas across market caps

Large caps

Ryan acknowledged that banks and major miners have carried the market. With those two sectors now making up roughly 40% of the index, selectivity matters.

Within financials, he prefers Challenger (ASX: CGF) over the major banks. Structural demand for annuities, product depth and capital management potential underpin the thesis, with valuation support relative to the big four.

In utilities, Origin Energy (ASX: ORG) stands out as a beneficiary of the energy transition. The market, in Yarra’s view, is not fully recognising the value of its portfolio, including Octopus and APLNG, while investors collect an attractive fully franked yield.

Within communications services, CAR Group (ASX: CAR) remains a core idea. Double-digit earnings growth and global exposure support the thesis, with potential upside from AI-driven traffic dynamics.

In resources, BHP Group (ASX: BHP) remains central. Copper now contributes more than half of EBITDA, altering the quality of earnings and strengthening the argument for a higher structural multiple than in its iron ore-dominated past.

Woodside Energy (ASX: WDS) is preferred in oil and gas, supported by production growth from Louisiana and Scarborough and an attractive forward free cash flow profile.

In tech infrastructure, Ryan sees NextDC (ASX: NXT) as a multi-year beneficiary of AI-driven demand for data centres. He also flagged Sims (ASX: SGM) as a less obvious AI winner due to its data centre repurposing exposure.

Small caps

Steele believes small caps can outperform from here, supported by stronger earnings growth and more attractive valuations.

Yarra expects more than 20% earnings growth across small caps over the next year, compared with roughly 10% for large caps. At the same time, small caps trade at a meaningful discount to their larger peers.

Two core holdings are Pinnacle Investment Management (ASX: PNI) and Netwealth (ASX: NWL). Pinnacle continues to expand its global multi-affiliate platform, while Netwealth retains significant runway in superannuation and the broker channel.

In consumer discretionary, weakness has created entry points in Guzman y Gomez (ASX: GYG) and Baby Bunting (ASX: BBN). Both offer rollout optionality and margin expansion potential.

From an AI infrastructure perspective, Megaport (ASX: MP1) stands to benefit from increased network demand. Steele also highlighted Netwealth and Cuscal (ASX: CCL) as businesses positioned to capture productivity gains rather than suffer structural disruption.

The key risk to the small-cap outperformance thesis, according to Steele, would be a major financial shock that drives capital back into perceived safety.

Micro caps

For Fleming, the micro-cap opportunity set is broadening again.

Liquidity is improving, capital raising activity is picking up and investors are again willing to look further down the spectrum. Crucially, he sees a shift back to operating momentum rather than financial engineering.

Energy One (ASX: EOL) is a standout. The software business sits at the centre of increasingly complex energy grids, managing the interaction between batteries, wind and solar. Following a sell-off alongside broader tech weakness, Fleming sees long-term structural growth at attractive levels.

Artrya (ASX: AYA), focused on non-invasive detection of coronary heart disease, is another high conviction idea. Regulatory milestones and commercial traction are building, with significant optionality if execution continues.

In resources, Metals X (ASX: MLX) provides leverage to tin, Larvotto Resources (ASX: LRV) to antimony, and Polymetals Resources (ASX: POL) and Aurelia Metals (ASX: AMI) to base metals such as lead and zinc.

In consumer, Universal Store (ASX: UNI) continues to execute strongly with the right product and price mix, while Autosports Group (ASX: ASG) benefits from luxury exposure, property ownership and cross-sell across finance, parts and service.

Sector deep dive: resources, consumer, tech and AI

Resources

Resources were the clear earnings engine of the season. Strong commodity prices, disciplined cost control and improving capital allocation have driven upgrades across the complex. Copper remains a preferred exposure given tight supply and structural demand from electrification.

Importantly, the strength is broad-based, spanning base metals, precious metals and energy. The backdrop also supports consolidation, as scale becomes increasingly valuable in a volatile pricing environment.

Consumer

The consumer space remains bifurcated. Sales growth has slowed in parts of discretionary, and margin pressure has been evident, particularly in autos. Yet companies with genuine market share opportunities and pricing power are still delivering.

The key is differentiation. In a softer demand environment, only those who can take share and protect margins are likely to outperform.

Tech and AI

Tech and AI defined the mood of the season. The sell-off across software and services has been sharp and often indiscriminate. The critical question for investors is whether a company is a beneficiary of AI adoption or vulnerable to disruption.

At the same time, productivity gains from AI are arriving quickly. Headcount reductions and efficiency improvements across parts of the corporate landscape suggest that the upside may be just as powerful as the threat.

Separating structural winners from those at risk will define performance in the years ahead.

Cautiously constructive

Across the spectrum, the Yarra team struck a cautiously constructive tone.

Resources are resurgent. AI is both a threat and a tailwind. Consumer is selective. Small caps offer growth at a discount. Micro caps are regaining operating momentum.

The common thread is selectivity.

In a market where a handful of sectors can drive returns and narratives can shift quickly, opportunities remain abundant. But they are increasingly nuanced and increasingly differentiated.

Time Codes

0:04 – Introduction and setting the scene
0:28 – Characterising the season
1:35 – Major themes from reporting season
2:44 – CapEx cycle and mining tailwinds
3:08 – Highlight of the season: resources strength
3:44 – Lowlight of the season: healthcare weakness
4:36 – Large-cap outlook: banks, miners and valuation risks
8:13 – Small caps: earnings growth and valuation gap
10:30 – Small-cap stock picks: Pinnacle and Netwealth
11:36 – Micro-cap themes: liquidity and operating leverage
13:36 – Micro-cap stock picks: Energy One and Artrya
14:51 – Sector focus: resources across market caps
19:58 – Sector focus: consumer discretionary trends
22:39 – Sector focus: tech and AI disruption
26:02 – AI opportunities and risks in small caps
27:42 – Closing remarks

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