Aussie market managed to finish in the black after the bank sector flip flopped between positive and negative. Iron Ore continues to fall while Oil saw support from signs of long term exploration expenditure reduction and Canadian wildfire. Commodities are under risk after China trade data shows weakness and Shanghai Composite is down over 5% in the last 2 days. US job market data on Friday shows that US Fed is likely to be on the sidelines till Sep/Dec on rate rise cycle. RBA will be forced to keep cutting rates to fight deflation and slowing economy. We have now downgraded our cash rate expectations from 1.5% to 1.0% in 2017. ANZ went ex div today and two of the big four banks yet to go ex-div. Banks and the market run into a lull period ex div period that is susceptible to profit taking risk. The market has been trading sideways for the past 2-3 weeks…even after a rate cut with outlook for more cuts…any fall in commodities or bank sector risk will see profit taking. (VIEW LINK)
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