Robert Delforce

Great insight and contribution to debate as always, ROGER!!! As a conceptual economist it always intrigues me how so much contemporary commentary/debate gets so anchored on if-when-how-much market prices will RETURN TO and EXCEED pre-COVID-19 levels ...Whereas the real focus of analysis and debate moving forward is WHETHER those pre-March 23, 2020 prices were justifiable/realistic on forward-earnings in the first place? ** Were they sustainable....or simply manifestations of fanciful wish-thinking? and **If they were sustainable, then are they STILL sustainable in the new COVID-19 WORLD??????? The if-when-how-much question IS however mighty relevant to those who bought in at the March 23-27 2020 prices and are now contemplating in the subsequent market recovery exiting those positions [or at least taking $$s off the table]. My own response then was to buy selected gold stocks on my watch list or already in my portfolio at the time. The plays have increased between 75 and 207% and I've either exited or significantly deleveraged my exposures. The buying was logical and based on a stock holding/watchlist compiled PRE-COVID-19 but, of course, totally unrelated to any "Planet-Mars" crystal ball-FORESEEING of COVID-19. The sell play in contrast was just risk management consistent with my underlying risk-return function and was HIGHLY SUBJECTIVE as I believe that only the deluded can think they can accurately predict the where-to of the next 12-18 months!! ....Great thought-provoking article as always, Patrick...and much appreciation to Emanuel, Aaron and Roger for their thoughts/deliberations!!