As a long-only value fund, we are drawn to bear markets. As alluded to in last year’s article titled ‘Like buying oil at $20 a barrel’ we have a firm interest in the beaten down uranium sector. Whilst it seems we were one of the first Aussie funds to allude... Show More
Following the falls in equity markets globally across October and November, there’s been a marked increase in bearish commentary from fund manager, analysts, and various other commentators. But as the saying goes, there’s two sides to every trade, and this is no exception. To balance out the panicked shouts, there’ve... Show More
How can investors generate returns regardless of which way the market moves? In today’s article, I review the unique process which Vega Capital uses to achieve this goal. Show More
Following Marks’ last memo, many media sources (though not this author) reported that Marks was ‘ultra-bearish’. Some even went as far as to report that he’d said, “it’s time to get out”, when he’d said quite the opposite. In an effort to set the record straight, Marks’ latest memo looks... Show More
Only time will tell if a bull or bear market awaits investors in 2018. There’s plenty of ammunition for both scenarios. I think it will pay investors to look closely at the boundaries marked by the bull and bear cases, and treat them like the flags between which they must... Show More
Harry Colvin, Senior Market Strategist at Longview Economics, believe that the US is in for “a mild, shallow recession” this year and that a bear market in equities is under way. So how have they positioned their portfolio for these events? “We’ve got a large under-weight in Emerging Markets, what... Show More
Yay! My personal indicator for investor sentiment in the Australian share market is back in action. That's the good news. The not so good news is the signal generated might not please everybody. Share prices for the Major Four Banks had risen within touching distance of consensus price targets and... Show More
Despite a strong rally from the lows in early February, global equities remain in a Bear Market. The rally from Feb 11th has the typical characteristics of many bear market relief rallies: equities have retraced approximately 65% of their prior losses. Our medium term (1 – 2 month) trading models... Show More
Market debate is zooming in on whether the sudden blast in commodities and in resources stocks is a signal of a sustainable turnaround. Most fundamental-oriented analysis suggests the answer is negative. As a matter of fact, with few exceptions most analysts see a continued rally as undesirable as it prolongs... Show More
In our opinion, we’re in a cyclical bear market for global equities. The centre of the global challenges in this bear market is China (& surrounding, related EM economies). As such, while US equities are expected to trend lower, US government bonds are an attractive safe haven. We would also... Show More
Global growth has been in a persistent downtrend channel since 2010, but somehow this only became a problem in early January. For investors there is a clear underlying message: it's only a problem if/when it might start impacting on the US economy and on US corporate profits. Thus far the... Show More
The U.S. S&P500 is up 9.7% in the 14 trading days since its February one year low, amazingly only 7% from all-time highs. Technically an 8% plus rally from a 1 year low is generally a bearish set-up and has been more likely to occur in an ongoing Bear Market... Show More
Reporting season draws to a close this week, and it’s been another thriller. With 1 day to go, the index is down for the week, but up over the 9 days of reporting so far. The big news of the week was BHP results, where they abandoned their progressive dividend... Show More
My Bear Market diaries are receiving both attention and applause from investors. Probably because the commentary is uncut, straight, useful and based upon past experiences. I can be wrong, of course, but it appears to me present context for global equities is going to stick around for a while longer.... Show More
The former head of developed market strategy at Morgan Stanley, Gerard Minack thinks we’re headed for a global recession in the next 2 years. “On a one or two-year view, I think a global recession is on the cards. And it’s not so much the thought of recession that’s scary,... Show More
It’s been a challenging start to the year for investors, but falling prices mean opportunities for value investors. That doesn’t mean it’s easy pickings; stock selection and sector diversification are paramount in such an environment. Are the banks good value or a value trap? Are the economic developments affecting value... Show More
Portfolios finally got a reprieve this week as the ASX200 rallied 3.4% (at the time of writing). Reporting season is now in full swing, with big names such as Telstra, CSL, Dominos and CBA reporting already. FNArena have been kind enough to give Livewire readers access to their reporting season... Show More
If investing in the share market seldom felt as uncomfortable as in 2016, you are by far not alone. Downdays make one wonder whether enough is held in cash, while a few days of rallies immediately raises the question whether cash should be in the market instead of on the... Show More
Chris Watling from Longview Economics answers the question of where to and where not to invest in a bear market. His view since November has been to start raising cash. “Every 7 or 8 years cash is king. I think we are in one of those positions where you want... Show More
Geoff Wilson, Chairman of Wilson Asset Management, looks at the current volatility as an opportunity. "As an investor I get very excited when we go into a bear market because I know that a lot of opportunities will present themselves," Wilson said. "The market is cyclical, it gets overvalued and... Show More