Iron-Ore has plunged 40% this year, but we still feel BHP will fall ~30% further. RIO was +6.6% overseas, as it considers a merger with Glencore to create the world's largest Iron-Ore producer. Iron-ore prices have plunged 41% this year, I see no short/medium term change in this trend. Vale, the largest Iron Ore producer in the world had fallen over 70% since 2011. FMG, I now see a test of $3 before any bounce. I could implement a trading buy when we test trend line support. RIO has over 70% dependency for earnings on Iron-ore, remains neutral technically, but current downside momentum points to a test of the $50 area. I would be a trading seller into any spikes on Glencore merger talks. BHP, Australia's most inherited asset, is negative on a short term basis targeting the $30.50-$31 region. However, BHP trading on the ADR market, is extremely bearish, targeting a fall of 50%. While I stress this is in $US, it still has BHP at $22 locally if the $A falls to 60c to help its valuation on the ASX200. (VIEW LINK)



Comments

Please sign in to comment on this wire.