The US market again pushed higher overnight with the Dow reaching an all-time high in what we believe is just the start of a move to the ~20,000 area; an 8-10% advance. Over the last few weeks, we have generally been talking on a macro / index level hence this... Show More
The American FANG stocks (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google) have become household names and rewarded investors very nicely over recent years. However from late 2014, US stocks have consolidated their excellent gain since the GFC, the S&P500 is currently only 1.7% below its all-time high and the tech based NASDAQ... Show More
On a very quiet morning when both the US and UK have enjoyed long weekends, we thought we would revisit the potential path for Australian interest rates. Investors typically have short term memories and forget markets are cyclical. Iron ore should be a great reminder - from $US15/t to $US190/t... Show More
As you all know, we remain bullish US equities, targeting fresh all-time highs with a likely 5-10% further upside. If this view (illustrated below)is correct, there remains some opportunities for buyers with good stock selection and entry levels. The US Memorial Day weekend is basically upon us and not surprisingly,... Show More
5400 continues to provide some resistance for Aussie stocks, with a weak wage number and greater chance for another interest rate cut not enough to keep buyers on the front foot. The ASX was off -39 points although there was decent individual stock moves. Show More
Expectations of rate cuts are clearly supporting the market. It’s grinding higher when it probably should be selling off. Low interest rates make cash less appealing and it creates a lower hurdle to come up with ‘reasonable valuations’ for stocks. There’s little doubt that the market is overpriced here –... Show More
Is there still value in the strong REIT's sector? Show More
World stock markets hardly moved overnight but we saw further weakness from our resource stocks with BHP looking to open ~ $19.80 down another 2.8%. BHP will now be down 6.9% from its high last Thursday. We stick with our view that on number of matrices, which includes risk /... Show More
Is the CRB Index about to lead equities down? Show More
Back on 23rd October, I released a very negative and “lonely” report on Woolworths / Wesfarmers – Woolworths has since fallen 16.7% and 22.4% at its worst. My logic was simple, the stocks are trading on very rich P/E’s and no risks are being factored in to profitability from the... Show More
Just after midday in Chicago, around $US100m worth of VIX options were purchased in about 1 second. That is the equivalent to 50% of the average daily turnover. The unusually large purchase was a hedge, or a bet that volatility will rise in coming months in US equities. Show More
Unsurprisingly, majority of the questions are recently around the depressed IronOre sector, in particular, FMG. Unfortunately, investors prefer to buy falling stocks as opposed to ones at highs, which has a negative correlation to performance. A few thoughts crossed my mind over the weekend that made me want to clarify... Show More
After 43 trading days of “treading water” between 5740 and 5997, a decent move from the ASX200 is clearly overdue. For March/April combined, the average return for banks is +5.7%. However, currently we are only up 1.7%. Tops are generally the hardest inflexion-points in a market to identify and this... Show More
Money remains in all senses free, as companies that are desperate for growth in this anaemic economic environment try to keep shareholders happy. Corporate activity and acquisitions are clearly the plan for a number of company boards. Picking either takeover targets or corporate activity is very hard at best, but... Show More
I rarely witness more negativity directed into two specific sectors than Oil and IronOre. However, I believe we are actually in the middle of good countertrend rallies in some of these stocks over coming weeks. When all analysts are talking the same story, it's time to consider the alternative view... Show More
It has been confirmed to me on an almost daily basis that investors are far more comfortable buying a stock that has fallen 10-20%, rather than one making new all-time highs. Unfortunately, human psychology is often an enemy for investors who struggle at rule 1 of investing/trading: •Run your profits and... Show More
The US unemployment data released on Friday was extremely positive, increasing the likelihood of an interest rate rise in the US. Higher rates, with no obvious inflation is very bearish for gold, which pays its holders nothing. Fundamentally, I find it impossible to be optimistic gold at present. No market pundits... Show More
Yesterday, MQG completed a $500m capital raising at $73.50 (a 2c discount to the previous day's close). Compare this to the discounts investors demanded when optimism was a distant memory: CBA 2008-raised $1.65bn @ $26, a 12% discount. MQG 2009-raised $540m @ $27, a 22% discount. WPL 2009-raised $2.5bn @ $42,10 a 9.4%... Show More
The market is taking a breather at present and I believe the pause will last around 2-weeks, before the press again gets excited about a potential rate cut in April. As readers know, I am looking to move away from a yield dominated portfolio over coming weeks/months, to a growth... Show More
• The ASX 200 touched another high since May 2008 this morning before selling off and ending 12 points lower at 5,904. • The Earnings season continue to dominate the market recently with the following today: -Wesfarmers (WES) down 1.6% at $45.18 after slightly missing consensus earnings and reporting a $0.89 fully... Show More
