It's a big day for AUD traders with Q4 capex numbers due at 11:30 AEST

Chris Weston

Pepperstone

It's a big day for AUD traders with Q4 capex numbers due at 11:30 AEST. The most important part of this though is the business intensions estimate for 2014-15, which will be the first estimate for future capex intensions. While these 'intensions' prints will be revised five times, we need to look at today's print against the first estimate of the 2013-14 estimate, which was A$152 billion and given the RBA has detailed before they expected a 10% drop, this is what we can use as a guide for today's currency playbook. Working on this premise a number of a$137 billion or below (i.e. a 10% fall from the initial 2013 to 2014 print) should cause AUD weakness, a number a$145 billion or above should cause an AUD rally, given this is half the fall that is priced in.


Chris Weston
Head of Research
Pepperstone

Highly accomplished financial markets professional, with experience at a number of top-tier global institutions on both the buy and sell-side. A natural communicator with a strong ability to analyse macro-economic trends, capital flows and market...

I would like to

Only to be used for sending genuine email enquiries to the Contributor. Livewire Markets Pty Ltd reserves its right to take any legal or other appropriate action in relation to misuse of this service.

Personal Information Collection Statement
Your personal information will be passed to the Contributor and/or its authorised service provider to assist the Contributor to contact you about your investment enquiry. They are required not to use your information for any other purpose. Our privacy policy explains how we store personal information and how you may access, correct or complain about the handling of personal information.