It's a big day for AUD traders with Q4 capex numbers due at 11:30 AEST

It's a big day for AUD traders with Q4 capex numbers due at 11:30 AEST. The most important part of this though is the business intensions estimate for 2014-15, which will be the first estimate for future capex intensions. While these 'intensions' prints will be revised five times, we need to look at today's print against the first estimate of the 2013-14 estimate, which was A$152 billion and given the RBA has detailed before they expected a 10% drop, this is what we can use as a guide for today's currency playbook. Working on this premise a number of a$137 billion or below (i.e. a 10% fall from the initial 2013 to 2014 print) should cause AUD weakness, a number a$145 billion or above should cause an AUD rally, given this is half the fall that is priced in.