The best and worst ASX 200 stocks since Trump’s Trade War correction

Let’s set the scene. February 14, 2025. Valentine’s Day. A day for romance, flowers, and spending time with that special someone. It was also the day the S&P/ASX 200 logged its highest close ever, 8615.2. You can see from the chart below what happened next: President Trump’s Trade War Correction! Let’s call it the “PTTWC” for short!

On February 13-14, then newly re-elected President Trump began to outline his trade policy, hinting at plans to impose sweeping tariffs on the US’s trade partners. By March 3, the first tariff announcements were made, firstly on China, Canada, and Mexico. Then the carnage went into overdrive on April 2 following his fateful “Liberation Day” speech in which he announced “reciprocal” tariffs of up to 145% on dozens of countries (the penguins on Heard and McDonald Islands are still reeling!).

The impact on the ASX was swift and severe. Our benchmark ASX 200 dumped 1,446 points or 16.7% – just 3.3% short of an official bear market. Major stock indices in the US did not avoid that ignominious milestone, with the S&P 500 just tipping the 20% hurdle, and the Nasdaq Composite cascading an eye-watering 25%.

But, as can also be seen from the above chart, the recovery has been roughly as swift. Well, it’s still ongoing. The ASX 200 has rallied a commendable 15.5% from its 7169.2 low set on 7 April, and US indices are up even more than that. For the record, the rally was also caused by President Trump – simply, he has progressively dialled back his initial policy settings.

This article is not here to debate the justifications for the PTTWC (I’m not sure if any rational person can), it simply aims to highlight which stocks in the ASX 200 have flourished and which have floundered since it started. PTTWC’s happen – this is a fact of markets – so you better get used to it.

It’s how we manage our portfolios through these testing times that defines us as investors. So, with share prices around the world generally on the mend, let’s review whether you had the right stuff over the last three months.

PTTWC: ASX 200 Top 20 Performers

Let’s kick off with the 20 best ASX 200 stocks since the PTTWC began on February 14, listed below from best performing between that date and yesterday’s close. I’ve also included how my ChartWatch ASX Scans fared against the Top 20.

For those who don’t follow my ChartWatch ASX Scans, each day I compile lists of ASX stocks I feel are exhibiting the strongest uptrends and strongest downtrends based on my technical analysis methodology. I then narrow each list into what I call my high-conviction “Feature Uptrends” and “Feature Downtrends”.

The tables below show the first instance each Top 20 stock was run as Feature in ChartWatch ASX Scans from February 14 inclusive until yesterday (where applicable, otherwise “n/a” is shown). Many stocks were featured prior to February 14, so in many cases the performance figures understate some of ChartWatch’s wins – but today I really wanted to home in on how your strategy (and mine) fared specifically during the PTTCW.

It's also important to show performance at the Maximum Favourable Excursion (“MFE”). This is because several stocks in the Top 20 have pulled back since being featured, for example, gold stocks like Evolution Mining (EVN) which peaked at a 41.7% MFE before settling back to a +22.6% gain since February 14.

The ASX 200 Top 20 Performers contains an interesting mix of information technology (MP1, 360), resources (mainly gold) (RRL, WAF, BOE, GOR, LTR, EVN, KAR, PRU), financials (MPL, CGF, AUB, HLI), and consumer (APE, A2M, EVT). I also note a smaller representation of industrials (VNT, DOW) and utilities (APA).

Gains range from MP1’s +47.3% to DOW’s +16.8%. Over the same time, the ASX 200 is still down 3.9% – so these are very strong relative performances. It’s worth mentioning here that the data I present throughout this article does not consider dividends. This means stocks that have paid a dividend over the last 3 months will be disadvantaged.

Having said this, many of the stocks in the Top 20 are also dividend payers, so it will come down to relative dividend yield in a few cases. Reviewing the stocks just outside the list that might have snuck in on a relative dividend basis, only Inghams (ING) and Telstra (TLS) come into contention with 3-month capital only returns of 16.7% and 15.2% respectively. FYI, both are ChartWatch stalwarts.

PTTWC: ASX 200 Worst 20 Performers

Those were the ASX 200 heroes during the PTTWC. Now for the zeroes: The ASX 200’s Worst 20 Performers.

I hope your portfolio is chock full of the stocks in the first list and not this list! These are the worst of the worst. Taking out top spot (or is that bottom spot?) is coal producer CRN with a devastating 63.3% decline over the last 3 months.

Resources and Energy sectors are most highly represented (CRN, BGL, PLS, SMR, AAI, VEA, CIA), which reflects the uncertainty surrounding the global economy due to the trade war, but there are also consumer (IEL, DMP, GYG), building and materials (JLG, REH, JHX), information technology (XYZ, SDR), biotechnology and healthcare (CU6, PNV), financials (IFL, JDO), and real estate (HMC) sectors represented.

Note that ChartWatch also fared well here – identifying every stock in this Worst list as a Feature Downtrend at some point during the PTTWC. Many ChartWatch users prefer to buy those stocks in strong uptrends, and avoid, sell, or short sell those stocks in strong downtrends. This means this list is a smorgasbord of opportunity for short sellers, and certainly, a few strategic shorts from this list might have helped balance losses in other parts of one’s portfolio.

Note also how many stocks in the list have bounced back, as should be expected given the broader ASX 200 has rallied over 15% from its low. So, XYZ’s gain since featured in ChartWatch belies the fact that it slumped over 20% in the interim.

How will you fare in the next correction?

This is the big question you’ll have to answer when reviewing these lists. Hopefully you fared well, and held far more of the ASX 200 Top 20 Performers in your portfolio since February 14 than the ASX 200 Worst 20 Performers. If not, then you probably have some work to do, and I suggest that with the market seemingly settling down – now is the perfect time to do it.

It’s time to review your methodology (i.e., how you decide when to enter and exit your investments) as well as your risk management (i.e., how much you decide to risk on each investment, and across your entire portfolio). Over the top of each of these concepts sits your investing process. What tools do you use (technical or fundamental, expert or chatroom), how often do you conduct your analysis, and what benchmarks are you using to hold your portfolio’s performance to account?

As the old saying goes, “If you fail to plan, you plan to fail”. It couldn’t be any truer when it comes to successful investing. Perhaps it’s time for you to start planning. Go on…off you go!

This article first appeared on Market Index on Thursday 15 May, 2025.