There are Known knowns, Known Unknowns, and Unknown Unknowns

Jordan Eliseo

The Perth Mint

So said Donald Rumsfeld in a US DoD briefing in 2002. The Chinese national gold reserve fits in the "Known Unknown" category. Every gold analyst in the world wants to know the answer, but no one really has a clue. Trade data and domestic mining are used to come up with reasonable estimates, most of which put the hoard around the 3-3,500 ton mark. This would place the Chinese in either the bronze or silver spot, either side of Germany, when it comes to who has the largest national gold stash. Bloomberg this week speculated that we'd soon see the Chinese show their hand, as they believe policy makers in the Middle Kingdom want to see the Yuan included in the IMF's currency basket. Whatever does end up happening, we think the number will offer plenty for both the bulls and bears to argue about, and we're almost certain it won't move markets as some expect. After all, it's the "Unknown Unknowns", also known as "Black Swans" that you really need to look out for That and more here (VIEW LINK)


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Gold bull since early 2000. Have spent +20yrs working in investment analytics, research & portfolio construction. Author of two books on investing in gold and the causes of the GFC. Lover of markets, competition & technology

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