When the world demands energy, the real cost is supply - and it runs through the Strait of Hormuz
Todd breaks down oil and gas, uranium, copper, lithium, rare earths, iron ore, Titanium, coal & the supply chain constraints driving them.
Add us as a preferred Google source
.jpg)
If you are interested in uranium, oil, natural gas, LNG, copper, sulphur, lithium, rare earths, iron ore, coal, hydrogen, carbon markets, nuclear energy, titanium, advanced materials and broader strategic minerals, then you will enjoy this conversation.
In this episode of The Rate of Change, Murdoch Gatti sits down with Todd Warren, Portfolio Manager at Tribeca Investment Partners, to unpack a critical shift taking place across global commodity markets — and why the real story isn’t demand, but supply.
Over the past decade, commodities have been under-owned, underinvested and largely ignored as capital flowed into growth assets. ESG constraints and weak pricing suppressed new supply across energy and mining.
That dynamic is now reversing.
As Todd explains, we are entering a structurally different macro regime — one defined by constrained supply, geopolitical fragmentation and persistent inflation. Unlike prior cycles, this is not simply about stronger demand. The system itself is tight.
A key insight from the conversation is the fragility of global supply chains.
Critical inputs — including sulphur, essential for copper processing — are heavily reliant on global chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz. Disruptions here don’t just impact oil, but cascade through copper, fertilisers and broader industrial supply chains. In copper specifically, it is not just the availability of ore that matters, but the availability of inputs required to process it — creating an additional layer of supply constraint that is often overlooked.
This maybe is where the real risk — and opportunity — lies.
Across oil, uranium and key transition metals, years of underinvestment mean supply cannot respond quickly enough, while demand is reinforced by electrification, energy security and the re-emergence of nuclear power.
Where commodities were once treated as tactical exposures, they are increasingly being viewed as strategic allocations — offering inflation protection and asymmetric upside.
Todd also outlines how Tribeca Investment Partners expresses these views through its Global Natural Resources Strategy, a flexible long/short approach across equities, credit and commodities. The strategy has historically targeted 15–20% per annum returns, while its listed vehicle, Tribeca Global Natural Resources Limited, returned approximately 60% in calendar year 2025.
Key Insights:
• Energy (Oil, Gas & LNG): Supply may be the binding constraint
Energy markets appear structurally tight following years of underinvestment, with geopolitical chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz potentially amplifying supply risk. This may be reflected in exposures such as Woodside Energy, Santos, Tamboran Resources, Beetaloo Energy Australia and Inpex, with the Beetaloo Basin potentially representing long-dated domestic supply optionality.
• Uranium: A possible structural supply deficit
Uranium markets may still be early in the cycle, with demand potentially accelerating through nuclear re-adoption while supply remains constrained after a decade of underinvestment. This imbalance could support exposures such as Paladin Energy, Boss Energy, Cameco and NexGen Energy.
• Copper: Supply may be constrained at multiple levels
Copper availability may be influenced not only by mine supply, but also by processing inputs such as sulphuric acid, which rely on global trade routes. Disruptions at key chokepoints could create additional constraints. Exposure may sit with diversified producers such as BHP Group and Rio Tinto.
• Rare Earths & Strategic Minerals: Potentially shifting into geopolitical assets
Control of processing and refining, rather than just resource ownership, may become increasingly important. This dynamic could support emerging Western supply chains through Lynas Rare Earths, Iluka Resources, Brazilian Rare Earths, Meteoric Resources, Viridis Mining and Minerals and MP Materials.
• Lithium: Structural demand, but potentially cyclical supply responses
While long-term demand from electrification may remain intact, lithium markets may continue to experience volatility as supply responds more quickly than in other commodities. Example exposure: Pilbara Minerals.
• Advanced Materials & Processing: A possible emerging bottleneck
The constraint may increasingly shift from raw materials to processing capability and advanced manufacturing. This could be reflected in exposure to IperionX and 6K Additives (CDI: 6KA.ASX), where control of production processes may become a competitive advantage.
• Alternative Structures: Different ways to access commodity exposure
Exposure to commodity cycles may not be limited to producers, with royalty and streaming models potentially offering alternative pathways. Example: Wheaton Precious Metals.
Follow The Rate Of Change to never miss a ROCast!
Never miss an update
Enjoy this wire? Hit the ‘like’ button to let us know.
Stay up to date with my current content by
following me below and you’ll be notified every time I post a wire
Murdoch: Adviser & CEO @ York Wealth Management. 'The Rate of Change' podcast shares the insights of some of the brightest minds in asset management.
We work with High-Net-Worth individuals, institutions & family offices to help grow & protect their wealth.
Outside of working with clients, Murdoch & his wife Yasmin, an Executive Assistant to the Chairman of Wealth at a global investment firm, have 2 young children, a boy & a girl.
........
York Wealth Management Pty Ltd ABN 46 605 610 679 is an Corporate Authorised Representative of Samuel Allgate Investments Pty Ltd AFSL No. 420170; Financial Adviser Authorised Representative Number 001007979.
This article has been prepared without taking into consideration any investor’s financial situations, objectives or needs. Accordingly, before acting on the advice in this article, you should consider its appropriateness to your financial situation, objectives and needs. Every reasonable effort has been made to ensure the information provided is correct, but we cannot make any representation nor warranty as to the accuracy, completeness or currency of that information. To the extent permissible by law, no responsibility for any errors or misstatements is taken, negligent or otherwise. SAI or its authorised representatives may also receive fees or brokerage from dealing in financial products, see the Financial Services Guide for information about the services offered available at York Wealth Management.
.png)
5 topics
21 stocks mentioned
.png)
Murdoch: Adviser & CEO @ York Wealth Management. 'The Rate of Change' podcast shares the insights of some of the brightest minds in asset management. ...
Expertise
Murdoch: Adviser & CEO @ York Wealth Management. 'The Rate of Change' podcast shares the insights of some of the brightest minds in asset management. ...
Expertise
Comments
Comments
Sign In or Join Free to comment
