Yellen Sits on her Hands... | Let's Look Through Previous Fed Cycles: An Analysis in Time... | Happy Friday... |

Niv Dagan

Peak Asset Management

Good Morning, Yellen…. Sits on her hands and does not lift US interest rates… This is today’s heading: “US Stocks Drop as Rate Decision Fuels Global Economy Concern” – Bloomberg. The uncertainty is overwhelming… “Yellen wants to make sure that the U.S. remains the driver of global economic health,” said Dan Veru, who helps oversee $5 billion as chief investment officer at Fort Lee, New Jersey-based Palisade Capital Management. “The U.S. has to be the engine for pulling the globe out of slow growth.” What I wanted to look at, is what is different from a macro-view vs. 2004-06 and 1994-96, when the FED raised rates last time… You can see that although unemployment is sitting at 5.1% vs. previous cycles of ~ 5.5% and 6.5%, the participation rates are much lower…. Earnings and Inflation are also not strong enough and we feel that US inflation would need to rise to 2.0%+ (early 2016), before we see the Fed move….. Certainly, an interesting analysis…….. The SPI is down 12 points this morning

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Niv Dagan
Executive Director
Peak Asset Management

Prior to founding PEAK Asset Management, Niv headed up HC Securities, spent three years growing Halifax Investments capital markets division and also worked on the wholesale desk at Macquarie Bank, servicing a wide range of institutional,...


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