Yellen Sits on her Hands... | Let's Look Through Previous Fed Cycles: An Analysis in Time... | Happy Friday... |

Good Morning, Yellen…. Sits on her hands and does not lift US interest rates… This is today’s heading: “US Stocks Drop as Rate Decision Fuels Global Economy Concern” – Bloomberg. The uncertainty is overwhelming… “Yellen wants to make sure that the U.S. remains the driver of global economic health,” said Dan Veru, who helps oversee $5 billion as chief investment officer at Fort Lee, New Jersey-based Palisade Capital Management. “The U.S. has to be the engine for pulling the globe out of slow growth.” What I wanted to look at, is what is different from a macro-view vs. 2004-06 and 1994-96, when the FED raised rates last time… You can see that although unemployment is sitting at 5.1% vs. previous cycles of ~ 5.5% and 6.5%, the participation rates are much lower…. Earnings and Inflation are also not strong enough and we feel that US inflation would need to rise to 2.0%+ (early 2016), before we see the Fed move….. Certainly, an interesting analysis…….. The SPI is down 12 points this morning