The Aussie dollar’s dip under 71 cents this week provided great fodder for newswires, as it printed lows since February 2016. But the more telling story is probably how little time it spent at such lows, and that it is higher over the week, close to 72 cents. Show More
The last week has seen global risk appetite improve, although the AUD has struggled to capitalise and any rallies have proved fleeting. We summarise key events in the market this week in the transcript and video below. Show More
As global rates start to rise, Australia may follow in the short-term, but structural issues will prevent the RBA from hiking rates far, explains Chris Watling, CEO of Longview Economics. Any rate-hikes from the RBA will be short-lived, he says, and those structural issues will force Australian rates to zero. Show More
Martina's turn on our brief FX video this week, with the Aussie having traded lows since January. At the start of the week though, the Aussie received a boost from the positive risk sentiment following the first round of the French presidential elections. Martina discusses how Australia Q1 CPI and... Show More
The British pound was the big mover this week as the UK unexpectedly headed to the polls. In our brief weekly video, I discuss how durable sterling's rally is likely to be. I also touch on the role of the RBA minutes in the AUD/USD decline earlier this week, check... Show More
Everyone forecast the death of the Aussie dollar in 2016, however, interest rate differentials and resurgent commodity prices pushed the local currency to a peak of 78 cents early in 2016. Of the 600+ Livewire members that responded to our 2017 Outlook Survey only 5% see the currency ending the... Show More
Currency and interest rates are currently playing a large role in the world economy, which should be no surprise because we are covering new ground in terms of record low rates and subsequent currency fluctuations. At present, 40 per cent of the developed world’s interest rates are negative. Show More
The Reserve Bank of Australia has cut the official cash rate to an unprecedented 1.5% to maintain downward pressure on the currency and spur sluggish inflation and business investment. As was forecast by most analysts, the board lowered the cash rate by 0.25 of a percentage point from 1.75% on... Show More
The US dollar lost its safe haven play last week when it encountered major resistance from its 200 days moving average level, according to Saxo Capital Markets Sydney-based trader James Kim. In the next few days, the US Dollar Index might be testing re-entering the channel it broke during the... Show More
The AUDUSD looked weak in the last couple of sessions, following the Brexit UK referendum, but it found the support again above the 0.73 cents handle. According to Saxo Capital Markets traders based in Sydney, the resistance levels remain at 0.7380, 0.74 and 0.7460 while the support levels are the... Show More
The Aussie Dollar plunged more than 200 basis points following the release of the quarterly CPI number for Australia on Wednesday 27-April. The -0.2% for the 1Q16 was the lowest in seven years. According to Sydney-bases Saxo Capital Markets' traders, the most recent price actions seem to indicate that "we... Show More
After five consecutive days of positive gains, the US dollar index (DX) fell and the AUDUSD appears to have found the support level at 0.75 handle. Saxo’s Sydney-based traders expect the AUDUSD to trade below the resistance level 0.76 handle given the lack of economic data this week, until Friday’s... Show More
Despite higher interest rates in the United States and ongoing weakness in commodity prices, the Australian dollar has broadly trended sideways since late 2015. This note updates our model estimates of fair-value for the $A against the US dollar in light of recent interest rate developments and the December quarter... Show More
Australians are increasingly taking vacations at home rather than flying overseas, as highlighted by recent data showing international net departures were down 20% on-year in September. Also, Chinese tourist arrivals rose 23% in September, helping to fill hotel rooms that might otherwise have remained empty, fill cinemas, cruise ships &... Show More
With so many central banks meeting this week, Saxo Capital Markets' Asia Macro Strategist Kay Van-Petersen discusses the currency crosses he's looking at. Kay is now suggesting long term macro trade of the Aussie Dollar against the Swiss Franc. He also explains why he's long AUDNZD. To watch his insights,... Show More
The mining bust and the weakening of the Aussie dollar have motivated local investors to look offshore for better investment opportunities. With this in mind, investors who are looking to invest globally should be aware of the potential added benefits that arise from looking beyond the “usual suspects” when seeking... Show More
Last week the portfolio was up over 4%, taking gains to over 6% for November. Which takes the portfolio year to date +16% in USD and +21% in EUR. Over 30% in Aussie dollars thanks to the fx. Show More
ABS data for the 12 months to end September 2015 shows total inbound visitations of 7.23m (+7% pcp). Passenger arrivals from overseas have risen and departures from Australia have fallen, continuing a two-year improving trend in travel flows dominated by China. The number of short-term travellers arriving in Australian September... Show More
Optimistic comments concerning a December rate hike from the US Fed Janet Yellen strengthened the US dollar, against most currencies today including the Aussie Dollar. Saxo Capital Markets traders based in Australia say that even though the AUDUSD traded higher on Wednesday, it failed to stay above the key resistance... Show More
Although the AUD has fallen a long way from previous peaks, it may surprise investors to know just how potentially low it could go. To gauge the “fair-value” for the Australian dollar, the first two points of reference are inflation differentials and the terms of trade. With inflation, if Australian... Show More
