One of the wisdoms commonly held by stock pickers since the early 1980s had been never to bet against the US consumer. The structural decline in interest rates and steady build-up of consumer debt had been fuelling demand for consumer goods and services for several decades. Show More
Russ Koesterich, the Chief Investment Strategist at Blackrock says “the reason we’re not seeing a more convincing recovery lies largely with the consumer. While firmer wages and lower gasoline suggest that the consumer has the ability to spend, what consumers lack is the propensity to spend. Instead of spending, more... Show More
In one of her few speeches since joining the Fed in 2014, Fed governor Lael Brainard says "there may be reasons not to ignore the recent readings entirely. First, the limited data in hand pertaining to the second quarter do not suggest a significant bounceback in aggregate spending, which we... Show More
US Stocks rose overnight as manufacturing data came in stronger than expected, overshadowing weak consumer spending. One fund manager, Timothy Ghriskey, the CIO at Solaris Asset Management, summed up the mood perfectly saying “If economic data isn’t negative, but also not really positive, the market loves it. What we saw... Show More
Gavyn Davies, formerly Head of Global Economics at Goldman Sachs and now blogger at the FT says “Assuming that the oil price is now tracing out a bottoming pattern, as US fracking output is rapidly reduced and oil demand begins to rise, the global deflationary shock is over, for now... Show More
Earnings season is kicking off here in the US, but before I start reviewing some of the major earnings results, I want to discuss a bit of anecdotal evidence of the economic recovery. This past week, I was able to take a road trip to San Diego, California to visit... Show More
Friday's unexpected decline in consumer spending is somewhat disconcerting in the wake of the negative GDP revision last week. Consumer purchases dropped 0.1% after climbing 1% in the prior month. That's the first decrease in a year. Adjusting for inflation, spending decreased by the most since September 2009. However, it's... Show More
Optimism over US economic growth remains strong after three meaningful economic reports were released today. Consumer spending jumped 0.9% last month, the largest gain since August 2009. What's more, personal incomes increased the most in seven months. Meanwhile, the ISM Manufacturing Index rose to 54.9, the strongest reading of the... Show More
Consumers continue to spend more freely with retail trade up for the ninth straight month in January.But retail trade is only part of broader consumer spending. We look back at the trends in spending over 2013.Aussies spent more on health, cars and housing but less on alcohol and gambling.Consumer spending... Show More
Restaurants in the US on hiring spree but restaurant sales are collapsing. Restaurants and bars are hiring staff at a near record level. These businesses have hired on average 50,000 new works per month over the past three months and now have over 10 million workers and make up 9%... Show More