Local market recovered from early losses to finish flat on continued commodity optimism. Shanghai index making a big move higher today….positive China sentiment. Base metals are on fire while Iron Ore and Oil continues to prove bears wrong. Copper leading the charge and we see MLX and MOD as the... Show More
Local market climbed back higher gradually on the back of strong metal prices. Local market still struck in the narrow trading range since May. US market and geopolitics remain the macro overhang while reporting season is driving substantial volatility. Growth stories missing guidance or weak outlook statement are facing 15-20%... Show More
Local market fell on global sentiment despite bounce in Iron Ore and Oil. US market heads the negative catalyst list. US market risk remains key for local market…(1) VIX looks to break above post election high (2) Russell 2000 (i.e. US domestic facing) has pulled back below 200 day MA... Show More
To say there is a quiet week in prospect for economic data borders on under-statement – certainly a very, very quiet week lies ahead in Australia. Show More
Janet Yellen has some of the fastest feet in the West. As she danced her jig around the topics of Fed Funds rates and future monetary policy 'toolkits', a lot was said without actually saying very much at all. Her speech did little more than demonstrate an inept set of... Show More
Our expectations haven’t changed since the symposium. The most likely outcome we believe is that the Fed embark on a “dovish hikes” theme. The problem with increasing interest rates in the current environment is that risk markets (equities) are far more interest rate sensitive than in previous cycles. The effect... Show More
The actions of central banks have had an unprecedented impact on bond markets. The outlook for US bond yields is tied as never before to the policies of the Fed, the BoJ, and the European Central Bank (ECB). It should come as no surprise then that we have been paying... Show More
On nominal rates alone, I’m more hawkish than I was, though I still don’t expect them to head much higher than 1% before the Fed changes course, a view more in line with the market that the dot-plot. My view on nominal rates is not because I think the Fed... Show More
Following on from yesterday’s collection on the key takeaway to emerge from last week’s Jackson Hole symposium, Livewire has asked our contributors how this affects the investment strategy around their respective asset classes. They make the case that yields are likely to stay low; the RBA is on hold for... Show More
Global bond returns have been particularly strong over the last 2-3 years. In our view, central bank policies have been driving bond yields lower. Large-scale asset purchases in the US, Japan, Europe and, most recently, the UK have been reducing the supply of the highest quality pools of liquidity: government... Show More
Precious metals are my primary focus, and short-term I’m neutral with a downside bias, a position unchanged from our pre-Jackson Hole outlook here at ABC Bullion. The greater focus on a potential rate hike in either September or December of 2016 that came out of Jackson Hole reaffirms this view.... Show More
Global growth remains muted despite central bank policies that are now so accommodative that the value of negatively yielding bonds has reached $13.4 trillion. The markets are, of course, questioning the efficacy of monetary policy, and its ability to handle future crises. With this backdrop, Jackson Hole in Wyoming last... Show More
In this Livewire Exclusive video, Vimal Gor, Head of Fixed Interest & Income at BT Investment Management, described Yellen’s recent speech at Jackson Hole, "The Federal Reserve's monetary policy toolkit: Past, present, and future" as a ‘damp squib’, i.e.: a ‘fizzer’. He says: “There have been lots of conversation about... Show More
One of the more interesting developments was the reticence from the Fed to move toward negative rates, something their counterparts in Europe and Japan are obviously more comfortable with. Yellen didn’t mention negative rates when discussing steps future policymakers may add to their toolkits, but it was telling that she... Show More
Jackson Hole will most likely be remembered for the Fed’s Vice Chairman stealing the limelight from his boss in an offstage interview. After a relatively uneventful Yellen speech, Fischer threw the cat amongst the pigeons, arguing the case for a September hike and possible two this year. Yellen’s speech used... Show More
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) was effectively the first central bank to introduce ‘unconventional’ monetary policy way back in 2001. Years later, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) borrowed from the BoJ’s playbook in the aftermath of the financial crisis in 2008 in an effort to guide the US economy out... Show More
Since the surprise FOMC rate hike in 1994, the FOMC has never raised rates, or cut them, without the ‘pre-approval’ of the Fed Funds Futures (FFF) market. If history holds, the FFF would need to price more than 60% probability before the FOMC would act. Yellen and Stanley Fisher are... Show More
Aussie market fell on the open before a mid-day bounce ran into more selling. The reporting season is over as far as the market is concerned. We are back into macro madness. There are a few next week but the main course is done as far silly season is concerned.... Show More
Despite (or perhaps because of?) being the final full week of Reporting Season, it's been a slow week in the markets. Even the Bloomberg editors thought so, as they released multiple articles this week lamenting how quiet markets were. There's no need to join them, however, as we've got your... Show More
Precious metals have eased in the lead up to Jackson Hole, with the gold price off over 2% since last week, whilst silver has fallen back below USD $19oz, down more than 6% since the middle of August. The pullback is not entirely unexpected, with Stanley Fischer, Federal Reserve vice... Show More