In the last edition of our Hype Cycle publication on 9 January 2019 we had to put ashes on our head for not having warned of the correction in the fourth quarter 2018. However, we redeemed ourselves somewhat in the last report because there we analysed the sentiment of retail... Show More
Fund managers need a distinct and reliable process to maintain their edge and keep them ahead of the index. When we sat down with Peter Rutter, Head of Global Equities at Royal London Asset Management, we asked about his strategy, which begins by sorting companies into one of five stages... Show More
In 2007 Howard Marks released a memo titled The Race to the Bottom, the note shared his view that investment markets are like an auction house, the item that’s up for sale goes to the person willing to pay the most. When buyers are scarce the items for sale go... Show More
10 years into the recovery, and with valuations close to or at historical highs, there’s little denying that we’re getting late in the cycle. However, Amit Lodha, Portfolio Manager at the Fidelity Global Equities Fund, says that valuations are only half the story. Key points: Valuations are never a catalyst... Show More
The rhythm of life is no different to the rhythm of economic and corporate cycles. The optimism of birth, the excitement of growing up, the cynicism arising from the compromises that come with maturity, the tumult of unfair turns and the joys of victory, all in turn impacting upon performance.... Show More
While in Taiwan this week, meeting with executives of the technology/smartphone value chain, my hotel room shook with earthquake tremors. It struck me that nature has a unique way of sending us mortality messages every so often. In a similar vein, hidden in all the volatility last week, ‘Mr Market’... Show More
Local market ran out of puff and closed at the lows of a negative last day of the quarter. We are heading into the last week of trading before school holidays and institutional investors are likely to lock in their profits before going on holiday with their families. Retail investors... Show More
It’s now a decade since the first problems with US sub-prime mortgages started to appear and nearly eight years since share markets hit their global financial crisis lows. From those lows in 2009 lows US shares are up 239%, global shares are up 167% and Australian shares are up 80%... Show More
In the wake of the global financial crisis the market was supported by two pillars: high profits and low yields. Both pillars have contributed to the rally from the post-crisis S&P 500 low of 666 to around 2,150 today. However, lately there has been a turn in the markets, and... Show More
Recently I was asked where we are in the cycle of investor emotion between the extremes of “euphoria” and “depression”. This is a good question, as knowing where the investment crowd is at and being wary of it is essential to successful investing. The 1980s Japanese bubble, the Asian miracle... Show More
