Yield curve

It’s often said that’s its darkest before the dawn and that certainly applies to markets. Only a few weeks ago bond yields were hitting record lows and the equity...

It is said that equity bull markets “climb the Wall of Worry”.. The third quarter of 2019 is an excellent example of exactly that. As the wisdom also goes, “there are...

In early August, we made the decision to move tactically underweight equities. Adopting a more cautious stance is perhaps not surprising given this is...

The rally in 10-year bond yields over the past six months has seen the spread differential between 10-year and 3-month bond yields fall to -30 basis points....

The conventional explanation from recent moves in bond markets is that global bond yields are collapsing because investors fear a global recession, triggered by the...

The bond market is often seen as the most accurate indicator of what lies ahead for an economy, or at least what investors believe lies ahead. If the current gyrations...

The recent inversion of the US yield curve has seen many interpreting this as the harbinger of a recession in 2020. Though such an inversion is a sign that investors...

The gold price in USD fell by 3% in the first half of August, declining below critical support at USD $1200oz, though it has since bounced back above this level. The...

2018 has been a fascinating year so far with many different cross-currents running through markets. We have seen central banks hiking, just as Governments look to...

Three key indicators we focus on for a health check of the US equity market are: 1) The direction of US leading economic indicators (as a guide to future earnings); 2)...