Global Equities - Half the world is in a bull market

Callum Thomas

This would have to be my chart of the week. The red line shows the proportion of countries (70 in this study) that are currently in a bull market: currently just over 50%. The chart appeared in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes (VIEW LINK) . So how do you define a bull market? The simple answer is a market that's going up... but there is a rule of thumb that a market that has gone up at least 20% is in a bull market. I've gone with this definition for simplicity, for the chart I used a 52-week window (so to register, a stock market would need to be up at least 20% from its lowest point over the last 52 weeks). What's interesting about this chart is that it is showing many familiar signs that often occur at the start of a bull market - just look at the 2016 bottom vs 2003, 2009, and 2011. Indeed, it looks like an entirely new bull market in global equities is now under way.

Callum Thomas

Callum is Head of Research at Topdown Charts. Topdown Charts is a chart-driven macro research house covering global Asset Allocation and Economics.



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