Investors predict one way traffic for Aussie Dollar

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Livewire Markets

Q. Where does the AUD dollar finish next year? 

 

 

Chart: 93% of survey respondents see the AUD staying flat or heading lower


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Edited transcript

Chris Stott, Wilson Asset Management 

We think it moves up, Matthew, rate rise coming, resources strength, the dollar goes up.

Ben Clark, TMS Capital

I think it's going to be pretty flat without wanting to sit on the fence. I think you'll see slightly weaker commodity prices next year, but the market's expecting an interest rate cut or semi-priced in which I don't think you're going to see.

Chad Slater, Morphic Asset Management

Well, we see three out of four scenarios for it to go down, so we think the weight of probability is much lower. Prediction? Sub 65 cents

 

Commodities will continue to play a major role on the AUD

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Shane Oliver , AMP Capital

Lower. I'd say around 68 cents. A point forecast is always impossible to get right, so I'm using that as an indicative level. I think the reality is the Fed will raise rates probably on three occasions, which is what the Fed's currently suggesting itself. In Australia, we'll be cutting, and so that interest differential will widen against Australia, pushing the Aussie dollar lower.

Vimal Gor, BT Investment Management

I would say lower, but I think there's a chance it goes higher in the short term. Prediction? It’s sitting at 75 cents today, I'd say 65 cents by year end.

Richard Coppleson, Bell Potter

Up for the first four or five months, 80 cents to 82 cents with the terms of trade going up and the current account deficit reducing. 

Then falling later on as we get maybe three, maybe even four US rate hikes. 

Steve Johnson, Forager Funds 

I think roughly the same again. If there's going to be a large move, I think it will be to the downside.

Matthew Kidman, Centennial Funds

On the back of weaker commodity prices, I think the dollar does eventually fall under 70 cents, lands somewhere high 60s.

Jon Shapiro, The Australian Financial Review

It's a close one, but I'd say down. I think interest rate differentials will trump higher commodity prices. Prediction? Below 70 cents.


 

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Disclaimer: The information contained in this presentation is general in nature and should not be relied upon. Before making any investment of financial planning decisions, you should consult a licensed professional who can advise you whether the decision is appropriate for you. Contributors to this show may have commercial or financial interests in the companies mentioned.


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