Investors predict one way traffic for Aussie Dollar
Q. Where does the AUD dollar finish next year?
Chart: 93% of survey respondents see the AUD staying flat or heading lower
We think it moves up, Matthew, rate rise coming, resources strength, the dollar goes up.
Ben Clark, TMS Capital
I think it's going to be pretty flat without wanting to sit on the fence. I think you'll see slightly weaker commodity prices next year, but the market's expecting an interest rate cut or semi-priced in which I don't think you're going to see.
Chad Slater, Morphic Asset Management
Well, we see three out of four scenarios for it to go down, so we think the weight of probability is much lower. Prediction? Sub 65 cents
Commodities will continue to play a major role on the AUD
Shane Oliver , AMP Capital
Lower. I'd say around 68 cents. A point forecast is always impossible to get right, so I'm using that as an indicative level. I think the reality is the Fed will raise rates probably on three occasions, which is what the Fed's currently suggesting itself. In Australia, we'll be cutting, and so that interest differential will widen against Australia, pushing the Aussie dollar lower.
Vimal Gor, BT Investment Management
I would say lower, but I think there's a chance it goes higher in the short term. Prediction? It’s sitting at 75 cents today, I'd say 65 cents by year end.
Richard Coppleson, Bell Potter
Up for the first four or five months, 80 cents to 82 cents with the terms of trade going up and the current account deficit reducing.
Then falling later on as we get maybe three, maybe even four US rate hikes.
I think roughly the same again. If there's going to be a large move, I think it will be to the downside.
Matthew Kidman, Centennial Funds
On the back of weaker commodity prices, I think the dollar does eventually fall under 70 cents, lands somewhere high 60s.
Jon Shapiro, The Australian Financial Review
It's a close one, but I'd say down. I think interest rate differentials will trump higher commodity prices. Prediction? Below 70 cents.
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