Spring carnival form guide: Political and economic edition...

Stephen Koukoulas

Market Economics Pty Ltd

The spring carnival is in full swing and it’s time to turn on the lights and examine the political and economic form guide. My tip is "Uncertainty", which seems to have the best track record in politics and economics. So here’s my take on the rest of the runners…


Turnbull: Looked promising early in career but only fell across the line last start. Lost all form and hard to have.


Shorten: Difficult to fault recent form, although task made easier in recent starts with inferior opposition. The testing material.


Government Debt: A stayer which is going from strength to strength. Being helped by a lack of tax reform and will be thereabouts.


Reserve Bank: Has done nothing in over a year despite the urgings of the 1.8 million people either unemployed or underemployed. Needs to improve.


Barnaby: Imported colt who was blocked by High Court at his last start. The use of blinkers has not helped. In the spelling paddock.

Hanson One Nation: Attracting support in recent starts, gaining a dream run as Turnbull shifted to the right in the home straight. No.

ASX200: Slowly regaining form having been knocked down by GFC. Watch for market moves, but probably looking for longer.

Housing Bubble: One of the favoured runners, but past its peak. Will attract plenty of support. A proven stayer.

Xenophon: Eligible for easier races having failed to live up to expectations. Prefer others.

Greens: Won the Bong Bong Cup in record slow time. Failed to make any ground after running in wrong direction in the Group One Economic Policy Cup. A win would surprise.

Abbott: Lost on protest to Turnbull having followed a similar path to Rudd when in the lead. Might be at long odds for this, but still a definite threat.

Australia’s Economy: Hampered by Reserve Bank when poised to challenge in the World Best Plate. Not the worst.

Uncertainty: Even with erratic form, this gelding has a habit of popping up when least expected. Include in multiples.

Your Money: Dropped out last in the race won by Global Crisis. Bought into contention by Housing Bubble and ASX200. Keep safe.

Rudd: Had the run of the race but ran off at the turn on the PM Handicap in 2010, caused interference to the eventual winner. Capable of better.

Itchy Leg: Scratched.


Stephen Koukoulas
Chief Economist
Market Economics Pty Ltd

Stephen Koukoulas has a rare and specialised professional experience over more than 25 years as an economist in government, as Global Head of economic and market research, a Chief Economist for two major banks and as economic advisor to the Prime...


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