Trending On Livewire: Weekend Edition - Saturday 17th May

Good Morning,

It’s hard to fathom that, despite all the turmoil of recent months, the ASX 200 is back in the green, posting eight consecutive positive days. The local market now sits just 3% shy of its mid-February high.

My colleague Kerry Sun crunched the numbers on the 16 times the market has delivered eight or more consecutive gains in the past 25 years. The average subsequent 1-year return? A solid 5.87%.

The big story of the week was undoubtedly the de-escalation of the trade tariff standoff between China and the US. For the next 90 days, US tariffs on Chinese goods will fall from 145% to 30%, while China’s tariffs on US goods will drop from 125% to 10%. These cuts were ahead of expectations and added fuel to markets that were already bouncing hard.

Economic data continues to surprise on the upside, and on the local front, a strong jobs report suggests the Australian economy is proving resilient. That’s good news, but it’s also dialled back expectations for interest rate cuts.

For investors, it’s been back to the pre-tariff playbook. CBA is trading at all-time highs (up 38% over 12 months), and the tech sector has rallied 20% in the past month alone. After a phenomenal run, gold came under pressure this week, with global fund managers saying the ‘long gold’ trade is now more crowded than backing the Magnificent Seven.

You can see the 20 best and worst ASX 200 performers since the recent correction here.

I hope you have a great weekend.

James Marlay, Co-Founder, Livewire Markets

Key insights and stock picks from the 2025 Sohn Conference in New York

The Sohn Conference took place in New York this week, uniting leading figures from the U.S. finance sector to support medical research, equipment development, and programs for children battling cancer and other illnesses. Established in 1995 in memory of Ira Sohn, a Wall Street professional who died of cancer at 29, the conference and its foundation have raised tens of millions of dollars. Australia hosts a similar event - the Sohn Hearts and Minds Conference - each year since 2016. Both conferences are renowned for featuring top investment minds who share market insights and stock ideas. In this wire, we highlight some of the standout moments from the event.

GET INSIGHTS NOW

Is now the time to consider currency hedging?

In the 2000s and early 2010s, many investors were burned by international funds as the soaring Australian dollar - briefly rising above parity - crushed offshore equity returns. But in the years that followed, that pain turned into gain, with unhedged Australian investors enjoying outsized returns, particularly from U.S. stocks. Now, with the AUD/USD hovering around 65 cents, a level typically seen during periods of crisis, investors are questioning how best to manage currency risk. To understand the patterns in the FX market and what investors should do, I spoke to Ashley Owen (Owen Analytics), Daniel Kelly (Viola Private Wealth), and Shane Oliver (AMP Capital).

READ MORE

Top 3 Wires this Week

Here are the weeks top viewed or liked wires by our subscribers:

Funds

Ophir, Regal and Macquarie reveal their formulas for long-term wealth creation

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Equities

Macquarie's 3 ASX stocks tipped to outperform

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Commodities

Riding the commodity price cycle: The definitive investor guide

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Our Experts

Some of the best wires from our Contributors this week:

Commodities

Uranium supply risks: means lights out over Paris

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Equities

Woodside turns up the heat – LNG expansion, strategic partnerships, and hydrogen future

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Education

Reflecting on Warren Buffett's legacy

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Chart of the Week: Tariffs, what tariffs? Tech stocks continue exuding magnificence

Amid headlines of tariffs, factory shutdowns, and fears of a global recession, the Magnificent 7 appear almost detached from the trade war narrative. Since the first of the tech giants reported last month, full-year earnings estimates have risen 1.8%, while forecasts for the rest of the S&P 493 have declined. With six of the seven now in, and NVIDIA to report on May 29, earnings have beaten expectations by 11.3% - the strongest surprise since Q3 2023. This week’s chart highlights why tech continues to lead the market’s rebound: they’re investing, hiring, and monetising AI at scale. Magnificent, indeed.

Vishal Teckchandani, Senior Editor, Livewire Markets

Weekly Poll

LAST WEEKS POLL RESULTS

We asked "With global equity markets showing signs of extreme concentration and heightened volatility, where do you see the best opportunity for Australian investors over the next 6–12 months?"

The poll shows nearly half of investors (49%) see the best opportunity in ASX mid- and small-cap growth stocks. Meanwhile, 29% are looking offshore for diversification, and 22% are leaning into the safety of large-cap defensive names.

SEE RESULTS BREAKDOWN

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