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Macro

Understand the fast-changing domestic and global economic forces under the tectonic plates driving our markets.

Macro

The great regime change: growth and cheap money are dead

This inflation crisis has changed the world and asset prices forever, and will lead to a fundamental shift in the way things work.
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Industrial REITs – Shifting gears from tightening yields to growing rents

Delivering a total return of -23% to the end of October in local currency terms, this hasn’t been a great year for Global REITs. Whilst disappointing, it is also...
Mark Mazzarella
Dexus
Macro

Looking for a global recession in the new year? Watch out for this wildcard

The drumbeat of global recession for 2023 has been beating loudly of late. Some fund managers and analysts at major banks now have recession as their baseline...
Janu Chan
Bitesized Economics
Macro

“The RBA talks a big game but has the walk of the lame,” says GSFM

A keen eye on the inflationary threat, rather than its own communication errors, is what the RBA (and the economy) needs right now, says Stephen Miller
Glenn Freeman
Livewire Markets
Macro

A different way to boost portfolio alpha and reduce volatility

When conducting strategy research and development, we like to think in terms of what the new strategy will add to our current portfolio of systems. In general, we are...
Hue Frame
Frame Funds Management
Macro

What the Federal Reserve's communication problem means for your portfolio

The US Fed spooked markets with hawkish rhetoric. In this wire, I show why the Fed will have to pause soon, and why that bodes well for diversified portfolios in 2023.
Isaac Poole
Ascalon Capital
Macro

Lessons from past US recessions

In the context of the bond market signalling a US recession in late 2023/early 2024 - where CCI has been forecasting a recession since earlier this year - we have...
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Howard Marks: What lies ahead for inflation, interest rates – and why it's a sea change

The Oaktree Capital co-founder's latest memo reflects on the events and investor beliefs that led us to this point and provides some thoughts on the future.
Glenn Freeman
Livewire Markets
Macro

The most important thing you need to understand right now

This is an edited extract of a report that went to clients earlier this week. All I hear about is how tough a year 2022 has been. I guess that all depends on how you...
Greg Canavan
Fat Tail Investment Research
Macro

House price falls are not slowing

The latest data from CoreLogic underscores the point that Australia's record housing crash is not slowing right now. The first chart below shows the 3 month annualised...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

US inflation in the eye of the beholder

US inflation came in lower than expected yesterday. It is probably getting better, but I'll also note that you can see what you want in the numbers. If your view is...
Damien Klassen
Nucleus Wealth
Macro

How the US is onshoring production to avoid China weaponising key imports

Big moves are underway to onshore production of the essential building blocks of the US economy. This follows concern that dependence on key imports from China could...
Tim Richardson
Tim Richardson
Pengana Capital Group.
Macro

How to dodge downside risk

“Rule number 1: never lose money. Rule number 2: never forget rule number 1” – Warren Buffett In times of heightened market and economic uncertainty, investors must...
Deni Hoxha
Wilson Asset Management
Macro

Outlook for 2023: Worse macro, better markets

Change and volatility have dominated the macro environment in 2022. But despite the prospect of a material slowing in global growth and elevated inflation and...
Scott Haslem
LGT Crestone
Macro

2022 Year in Review

2022 has been an incredible year of changes within the macro landscape. We’ve seen one of the first major, sustained bear markets in many investment professionals’...
Max Pacella
Rest Super
Macro

Why a global recession is likely in 2023

Investors need to face up to the reality that a global recession is likely next year, which will crush corporate earnings and substantially increase default rates...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Cashflow pothole in the energy transition journey

The shock from the increase in utility bills will still be felt in real time, and for many this will merely compound an already dire cashflow situation.
Tim Toohey
Yarra Capital Management
Macro

Signal or Noise: Will the RBA pause rate hikes in early 2023?

Plus, at least one of our panellists believes this sector will be the "energy trade" for next year. Which one? Tune in to find out.
Hans Lee
Livewire Markets
Macro

How to find quality

“The individual investor should act consistently as an investor and not as a speculator” – Benjamin Graham, author of The Intelligent Investor With all the turmoil...
Deni Hoxha
Wilson Asset Management
Macro

What to make of the current cycle

Historical analogues are unfortunately even less useful than usual As always, the problem with these types of "market-performance-during-tightening cycle" analyses...
David Berthon-Jones
Aequitas Investment Partners
Macro

2023 predictions on the economy, inflation and the fixed-rate mortgage cliff

Chris Rands
Chris Rands
Yarra Capital Management
Macro

Three lessons from the 1970s' Great Inflation (and why it shouldn’t be repeated)

Last month, there was a moment that analysts and financial market participants had been hoping for some time. Like kids waiting for Christmas morning, market...
Janu Chan
Bitesized Economics
Macro

Coppleson: why the new bull market could start as soon as March 2023

History never repeats but it often rhymes. Markets are rallying at the moment but there is pain to come. The data suggests March 2023 could be a turning point for...
Richard Coppleson
Bell Potter
Macro

No evidence of a housing market bottom

Contrary to the “hopeium” out there, there is currently zero evidence that the great Aussie housing crash is bottoming out. The most constructive thing we can say is...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

China may be last to open up, but doing so will be a key driver for markets in 2023

There is a tendency in the west to see China as an authoritarian monolith – in contrast to the supposedly highly accountable democratic west, albeit only those with...
Mark Tinker
Toscafund HK Limited and Market Thinking Limited
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