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Macro

Understand the fast-changing domestic and global economic forces under the tectonic plates driving our markets.

Macro

It’s becoming scary for small US retailers

U.S. Retail Industry observer Retail Dive is reporting Armaggeddon for small retailers in the U.S., citing the survey results of Alignable, a small business...
Roger Montgomery
Montgomery Investment Management
Macro

Globalisation is morphing into something less

Tennis staged its first ‘open’ tournament in 1968, when the British Hard Courts were staged at Bournemouth. The open tag meant professionals were welcome to play in...
Michael Collins
Michael Collins
Magellan Investment Partners
Macro

China could block Australia's exports again. Here's why that's not a big deal

I’ll let you in on a little secret. While they may not care to admit it, even the most die-hard bottom-up, fundamental investment managers follow and consider macro...
David Thornton
Livewire Markets
Macro

Brisbane home values start declining as Sydney losses hit circa 4%

Home values in Brisbane are slowly rolling over and following in the footsteps of house prices in Sydney and Melbourne, where the losses continue to accelerate. With...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

That '70s disaster: Central banks will have to work harder than ever to control inflation

I grew up in the 1970s and it was fun – Abba, Elvis, Wings, JPY, flares, and cool cars. But economically it was a mess. Inflation surged and so did unemployment and...
Shane Oliver
AMP
Macro

Sydney house prices now crashing at more than 20% annualised rate

As a result of the RBA's extraordinary decision to hammer unsuspecting households with a staggering 125 basis points of mortgage rate hikes in the space of just two...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Recession, rates, rising risks: The rationale for remaining positive

Inflation is the topic du jour. And for good reason. Inflation in the United States is at the highest level in 40 years, running at a staggering annualised rate of...
Tim Carleton
Auscap Asset Management
Investment Guides

Your survival guide to central bank language

What is the first thing you think of when you hear the phrase "central bank"? Philip Lowe? Jerome Powell? Inflation? Interest rates?  When a slew of headlines drop,...
Hans Lee
Livewire Markets
Macro

Choose your interest rate adventure

How central banks, markets and investors got interest rates (and inflation) so wrong – and what that means for investors. The ‘Uber Test’ (once the ‘Taxi Test’) is a...
Frank Danieli
MA Financial Group
Macro

A six-point checklist to safeguard against recession

Well thank goodness for that. We’ve made it past the end of June, and in doing so completed a half year that no investor is likely to want repeated. There have been...
Tom Stevenson
Fidelity International
Macro

Central Banks need to think more like Bankers (and less like econometricians)

Under Classical Economic theory, interest rates were assumed to balance out savings and investment, with the demand for investment coming from businesses, which would...
Mark Tinker
Toscafund HK Limited and Market Thinking Limited
Macro

Three upcoming events that will transform the outlook

There was no reprieve in financial markets in the closing months of the financial year, in fact the losses sustained in bonds and equities in the June quarter were...
Tim Toohey
Yarra Capital Management
Macro

The next phase of the bear – why there's a margin crunch ahead

In my last wire two weeks ago, I argued that inflation was a rear-view mirror story. Since then, you’ve seen further data on the macro front that that is indeed...
Greg Canavan
Fat Tail Investment Research
Macro

RBA drops a neutron bomb on the Aussie housing market and makes a heinous mistake in its monetary policy statement

Sadly, the RBA is a little unhinged right now. It is mindlessly repeating mistakes it made both before and after the pandemic, the essence of which is predicating...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Chart of the Week: From not enough, to too much

Backlog Backdown and Inventory Increase: This is one of the most intriguing charts on my desk at the moment, it shows our composite global PMI backlogs indicator...
Callum Thomas
Topdown Charts
Rapid Fire

What investors can learn from disasters, and a big risk the market has missed

From central bank actions, including the RBA’s record-breaking 0.5% hike (our largest ever consecutive rate increase), to the war in Europe, and COVID’s relentless...
Glenn Freeman
Livewire Markets
Macro

Why the Fed isn’t riding in to rescue markets

Underpinning investor sentiment during the markets’ long bull run from 2010 to 2021 was the psychological safety-net known as the ‘Fed put’. While ultra-low interest...
Daniel Moore
IML
Signal or Noise

Signal or Noise: Three charts investors should be watching right now

In the first episode of Signal or Noise, we discussed the big economic and macro issues that are affecting investment decisions right now. If you missed that chat, you...
Hans Lee
Livewire Markets
Macro

Household debt is Australia’s Achilles Heel, and it could yet cause problems

If Australia has an Achilles’ heel it’s the high level of household debt that has accompanied surging home prices over the last 30 years. Of course, in the absence...
Shane Oliver
AMP
Signal or Noise

Signal or Noise: Big hikes, recession calls, and a 4% interest rate?

Welcome to the very first edition of Signal or Noise - Livewire's brand new series dedicated to data and economics. Our mission for this series is simple - to make...
Hans Lee
Livewire Markets
Macro

Aussie house prices fall for the second month in a row - and the pace of declines is accelerating quickly

In what should come as no surprise to regular readers of this column, Australian house prices have declined for the second month in a row in June--and the pace of...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Post-controversial budget, NSW attracts record $8.9bn of demand for new bond issue

After a disappointing budget blighted by heinous conflicts of interest that are costing NSW taxpayers at least $630 million a year, NSW attracted a record $8.9...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Cash-strapped consumers adopt the 'trading down' trend

Most quarterly earnings seasons have a key theme, a question that crops up in almost every analyst call and press conference. Working from home, re-opening, supply...
Tom Stevenson
Fidelity International
Macro

Perrottet lumbers NSW taxpayers with $106 billion in extra debt

In the AFR I write that after 12 years of Liberal leadership, encompassing four premiers and four treasurers, NSW is sadly degenerating into one of the worst run...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

1 in 10 chance Jerome Powell can salvage a soft landing

Rate hikes are an exceptionally blunt, roundabout way to kill today's inflation. US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell acknowledged as much in his address to...
David Thornton
Livewire Markets
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