What an extraordinary period in markets this is. I haven’t seen anything like this since the peak of the .COM bubble. When prices are moving irrespective or even inverse to fundamentals it remains very hard to remain disciplined in the investment process. It becomes easy to give in to FOMO... Show More
You can’t step twice into the same river. Stock markets are in a state of constant flux but there are currents that can persist over long periods. Think of the fund manager as navigating a river which is constantly twisting and turning, sometimes calm and sometimes perilously turbulent. At times,... Show More
Macro
In any discussion of the Australian housing market, it’s impossible to avoid discussion of a catalyst. “We see no immediate catalysts for a crash,” has become the cry of the perpetual housing bull. But Dr Philipp Hofflin from the Lazard Australian Equity Team believes a catalyst is unnecessary. “When we look... Show More
Although confronted with a maturing growth cycle and the likelihood of more modest returns, the catalysts typically leading to past downturns appear largely absent - such as sharply tighter monetary or fiscal policy and financial crises. Notwithstanding our sense that 2018 is a year to stay positive, we have highlighted... Show More
Cumulative net advances, one of the momentum indicators Gavekal Capital look at when assessing the internal strength of the market, has turned negative. This indicator is derived by taking ‘the moving one year sum of the number of advancers less the number of decliners each day and compare it to... Show More
The resource sector strategist's ongoing search for output growth momentum is not looking good. The latest leading indicators (for March) published by the OECD show most of the key economic regions either running below potential already or heading toward lower growth rates in the future. The chart shows the OECD... Show More
