outlook

Outlook for risk assets improves but caution remains

Kej Somaia

In the first half of 2018, we have seen volatility return to markets, a breach of the much anticipated 3% handle for 10-year US Treasuries, and an agreed summit between North and South Korea. As we continue to tread later into this cycle, investors seeking a consistent long-term real return... Show More

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A time to buy profits not hope

Andrew Fleming

The rhythm of life is no different to the rhythm of economic and corporate cycles. The optimism of birth, the excitement of growing up, the cynicism arising from the compromises that come with maturity, the tumult of unfair turns and the joys of victory, all in turn impacting upon performance.... Show More

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3 real estate themes with secular tailwinds

James Maydew

Global listed real estate has been enjoying a favourable outlook, supported by historically-low interest rates and improving economic sentiment. Here are three themes that we’re expecting to perform particularly well during the year due to their exposure to long-term secular growth trends. Show More

2018: A balancing act

Tom Stevenson

Most of the time investors don’t need to think too much about market timing or asset allocation. The long-term trajectory of financial markets is up and the only sensible thing to do is to be fully invested and allow the odds to work in your favour. As we enter 2018,... Show More

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Where will markets go in 2018?

Livewire Exclusive

It’s been a bumper year for global stocks as MSCI’s broadest index, the All Countries World Index, has rallied ~19% YTD, while Emerging Markets are up more than 25%. Coming into 2018, the ingredients are there for a “rip-snorting” run, says Chad Slater from Morphic Asset Management. Show More

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The rally in equities looks set to grind higher

Eley Griffiths Group

These days the challenge in writing an outlook piece for the stockmarket is to try and avoid rehashing the same supportive comments for global equities. I guess a bull case is a bull case even if valuation yardsticks aren’t quite as appealing this quarter as they were in the last. Show More

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Why earnings revisions come in groups

Livewire Exclusive

In a world where information is disseminated almost instantly, markets have become quick to price in new information. However, Andrew Martin from Alphinity Investment Management says that they generally fail to appreciate the long-term implications of a change in outlook. Show More

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Hostages to Fortune: Our scorecard for Jul-Dec 2016

Chad Slater

Each half, we provide a series of “anti-forecasts” for what will NOT happen over this period. Discover whether our July 2016 calls ended up being right. Next week, we will publish our forecasts for the coming six months. http://www.morphicasset.com/blog/scorecard-anti-forecasts-dec-16/?woo_source=Livewire/ Show More

Weekly S&P 500 #ChartStorm - 8 Jan 2017

Callum Thomas

Here goes 10 charts on the S&P500 which evoke both bullish and bearish thoughts. The bearish ones are generally shorter-term in nature while the bullish ones are more medium term... The simplest way to reconcile it is that we could easily see a correction early this year before the market... Show More

Weekly S&P 500 #ChartStorm - 18 Dec 2016

Callum Thomas

Those that follow my personal account on Twitter https://twitter.com/Callum_Thomas will be familiar with my weekly S&P 500 #ChartStorm in which I pick out 10 charts on the S&P 500 to tweet. Typically I'll pick a couple of themes and hammer them home with the charts, but sometimes it's just a... Show More

Weekly S&P 500 #ChartStorm - 11 Dec 2016

Callum Thomas

Here's the latest weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm. In this edition I include a broad mix of charts with some flagging bearish signals, and others presenting a more bullish case. They include: 50-day moving average breadth, an interesting analog chart, a couple of views of investor sentiment, the implications of the CBOE... Show More

Weekly S&P 500 #ChartStorm - 27 Nov 2016

Callum Thomas

In this week's edition, based only on the limited selection of charts, you would say that price is very strong, and that it's at least partly justified by improving fundamentals. While increasingly bullish sentiment and overbought indicators open up the possibility of a short-term correction, if the improving fundamentals trend... Show More

Weekly S&P 500 ChartStorm - 13 Nov 2016

Callum Thomas

This week we look at how the passing of the election risk is a key moment for the market with a swift reaction being seen in a number of indicators such as market breadth, sentiment, risk pricing, and hedging activity. But given the presence of a number of bullish undercurrents... Show More

Weekly S&P 500 ChartStorm - 30 Oct 2016

Callum Thomas

This week's S&P500 #ChartStorm (see my Twitter account: https://twitter.com/Callum_Thomas ) covers the series of down trend lines in the market internals i.e. breadth and sentiment - the logical conclusion of which would be a deeper and broader market correction. But I also cover a series of bullish pickings and explain... Show More

Fiscal spending set to increase, says Saxo's Christopher Dembik

Saxo Capital Markets Australia

Fiscal spending will top the agenda in Q4 for global investors, says Saxo Bank Group’s head of macro analysis Christopher Dembik. So where are the opportunities? Interest rates are at a low level, he says, so governments have a great chance to invest further to boost economic activity. China has... Show More

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Market is unprepared for the result of the US election, says Saxo's Chief Economist Steen Jakobsen

Saxo Capital Markets Australia

How will the US presidential contest between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump shape Q416? Steen Jakobsen, chief economist at Saxo Bank, explains his view on what awaits us. Speaking from New York, he says that it is clear that the US is in a state of emergency outside its major... Show More

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Two wasted years thanks to January 2016

Saxo Capital Markets Australia

Gains from 2014 and 2015 have been wiped out thanks to January 2016. So says Saxo's Chief Economist, Steen Jakobsen. Many are pointing the finger at China, but he says its economic slowdown is not new news. He feels the dragon is only being used as a scapegoat. Steen explains... Show More

The Year Ahead - Outlook for oil prices

CommSec

CBA Executive Director Energy Research, Aiden Bradley discusses the recent fall in oil prices and provides his outlook for the year ahead Show More

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Getting comfortable with the Fed

David Bassanese

After some jitters in August and September, global markets appear to be getting comfortable with the prospect of Fed tightening by year-end. In terms of asset allocation, history suggests a cautious neutral stance at best in international equities, as does the fact price-to-earnings valuations remain relatively stretched. To read the... Show More

IMF Steady Growth Outlook Holds Warning for Miners

John Robertson

PortfolioDirect has been using the momentum of IMF global growth revisions as an important indicator of cyclical positioning for the resources sector. Without an acceleration in global growth, a cyclical recovery for the sector is unlikely. For the first time since 2010, the IMF has raised its forecasts – a... Show More

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