Global stocks have enjoyed the best start to the year in almost three decades. Does this bode well for the rest of 2019? History suggests it does. Since 1928, a good January/February has led to a positive calendar year over 80% of the time. However, history does not always rhyme... Show More
In a panel discussion at Livewire Live in 2016, which you can see here, I described my worst fear at that moment: the danger of a trade war. In this wire, I revisit my thesis and ask what it means for investors. Show More
In the first half of 2018, we have seen volatility return to markets, a breach of the much anticipated 3% handle for 10-year US Treasuries, and an agreed summit between North and South Korea. As we continue to tread later into this cycle, investors seeking a consistent long-term real return... Show More
The rhythm of life is no different to the rhythm of economic and corporate cycles. The optimism of birth, the excitement of growing up, the cynicism arising from the compromises that come with maturity, the tumult of unfair turns and the joys of victory, all in turn impacting upon performance.... Show More
Global listed real estate has been enjoying a favourable outlook, supported by historically-low interest rates and improving economic sentiment. Here are three themes that we’re expecting to perform particularly well during the year due to their exposure to long-term secular growth trends. Show More
Most of the time investors don’t need to think too much about market timing or asset allocation. The long-term trajectory of financial markets is up and the only sensible thing to do is to be fully invested and allow the odds to work in your favour. As we enter 2018,... Show More
It’s been a bumper year for global stocks as MSCI’s broadest index, the All Countries World Index, has rallied ~19% YTD, while Emerging Markets are up more than 25%. Coming into 2018, the ingredients are there for a “rip-snorting” run, says Chad Slater from Morphic Asset Management. Show More
These days the challenge in writing an outlook piece for the stockmarket is to try and avoid rehashing the same supportive comments for global equities. I guess a bull case is a bull case even if valuation yardsticks aren’t quite as appealing this quarter as they were in the last. Show More
In a world where information is disseminated almost instantly, markets have become quick to price in new information. However, Andrew Martin from Alphinity Investment Management says that they generally fail to appreciate the long-term implications of a change in outlook. Show More
Each half, we provide a series of “anti-forecasts” for what will NOT happen over this period. Discover whether our July 2016 calls ended up being right. Next week, we will publish our forecasts for the coming six months. http://www.morphicasset.com/blog/scorecard-anti-forecasts-dec-16/?woo_source=Livewire/ Show More
Here goes 10 charts on the S&P500 which evoke both bullish and bearish thoughts. The bearish ones are generally shorter-term in nature while the bullish ones are more medium term... The simplest way to reconcile it is that we could easily see a correction early this year before the market... Show More
Those that follow my personal account on Twitter https://twitter.com/Callum_Thomas will be familiar with my weekly S&P 500 #ChartStorm in which I pick out 10 charts on the S&P 500 to tweet. Typically I'll pick a couple of themes and hammer them home with the charts, but sometimes it's just a... Show More
Here's the latest weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm. In this edition I include a broad mix of charts with some flagging bearish signals, and others presenting a more bullish case. They include: 50-day moving average breadth, an interesting analog chart, a couple of views of investor sentiment, the implications of the CBOE... Show More
In this week's edition, based only on the limited selection of charts, you would say that price is very strong, and that it's at least partly justified by improving fundamentals. While increasingly bullish sentiment and overbought indicators open up the possibility of a short-term correction, if the improving fundamentals trend... Show More
This week we look at how the passing of the election risk is a key moment for the market with a swift reaction being seen in a number of indicators such as market breadth, sentiment, risk pricing, and hedging activity. But given the presence of a number of bullish undercurrents... Show More
This week's S&P500 #ChartStorm (see my Twitter account: https://twitter.com/Callum_Thomas ) covers the series of down trend lines in the market internals i.e. breadth and sentiment - the logical conclusion of which would be a deeper and broader market correction. But I also cover a series of bullish pickings and explain... Show More
Fiscal spending will top the agenda in Q4 for global investors, says Saxo Bank Group’s head of macro analysis Christopher Dembik. So where are the opportunities? Interest rates are at a low level, he says, so governments have a great chance to invest further to boost economic activity. China has... Show More
How will the US presidential contest between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump shape Q416? Steen Jakobsen, chief economist at Saxo Bank, explains his view on what awaits us. Speaking from New York, he says that it is clear that the US is in a state of emergency outside its major... Show More
Gains from 2014 and 2015 have been wiped out thanks to January 2016. So says Saxo's Chief Economist, Steen Jakobsen. Many are pointing the finger at China, but he says its economic slowdown is not new news. He feels the dragon is only being used as a scapegoat. Steen explains... Show More
CBA Executive Director Energy Research, Aiden Bradley discusses the recent fall in oil prices and provides his outlook for the year ahead Show More