Yield curve

Geoff Wood

2018 has been a fascinating year so far with many different cross-currents running through markets. We have seen central banks hiking, just as Governments look to expand fiscally. At the same time, the big economic powerhouses go head-to-head on trade. Where does this all lead us? Below we walk through... Show More

Marcus Tuck

Three key indicators we focus on for a health check of the US equity market are: 1) The direction of US leading economic indicators (as a guide to future earnings); 2) The slope of the US yield curve (as an early warning of recession risk), and 3) The US equity... Show More

Marcus Tuck

One of most reliable early warning indicators of an impending equity bear market is the shape of the US yield curve. When short-term interest rates are higher than long bond yields, it is a sign that monetary policy is tight enough to choke off growth in the economy and company... Show More