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Macro

Understand the fast-changing domestic and global economic forces under the tectonic plates driving our markets.

Macro

How to position for a lukewarm Australian economy

The positioning implications are, we think, relatively straightforward. But first, to the numbers.
David Berthon-Jones
Aequitas Investment Partners
Macro

A tricky balancing act for the RBA

Sticky inflation and soggy growth has put RBA in a difficult spot with an extended period of on hold policy looking increasingly likely.
David Cassidy
Wilsons Advisory
Macro

Why investors can’t afford to dismiss this macro headwind as trivial

It may be treated by most investors as too academic, but the risk from excess government spending is very real.
Dr Christian Baylis
Fortlake Asset Management
Macro

Some relief from US core inflation matching expectations in April

The Fed is sidelined on rates for some time as it watches how inflation evolves after an unexpected surge in Q1.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Solid EA core inflation unlikely to stop a ECB rate cut next week

Solid core inflation may not stop next week's ECB rate cut, but raises questions about the pace of further cuts.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

May 2024 Podcasts

Below is a summary of the topics we covered on Nucleus Investment Insights this month. See the links for more information.
Damien Klassen
Nucleus Wealth
Macro

Australian retail sales decline to 0.1% m/m, German Prelim CPI rises 0.1% m/m

We look at five of the biggest developments across global markets for the week ending 31 May 2024
BHP
FMG
+2
Hue Frame
Frame Funds Management
Macro

US & EA wages growth shows a sharp improvement, with AUS & NZ lagging

Advertised wages growth is at/near pre-COVID levels in the US & EA, while still-high growth in AUS & NZ should improve this year.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

The RBA won’t hike again, but cuts pushed into (very) distant future

There’s definitely a shift in interest rate expectations post April CPI, but a hike remains a low probability vs cuts are now very distant!
Carl Capolingua
Livewire Markets
Macro

Bank clues to the bull market

Callum Newman of Fat Tail Investment Research explains why healthy banks here and the EU tell you whether to buy the dip or sell the rally
Callum Newman
Fat Tail Investment Research
Macro

China isn’t failing, we are failing to analyse it properly

By constantly trying to analyse a rapidly emerging China as if it is the US, we are constantly being surprised.
Mark Tinker
Toscafund HK Limited and Market Thinking Limited
Macro

Why I was wrong about NVIDIA

One way to look at NVIDIA is it got lucky with crypto, then AI. But, NVIDIA is leveraging its luck into a game-changing future for tech.
Damien Klassen
Nucleus Wealth
Macro

The US presidential election: Implications for investors and Australia

The run-up to the 5th November US election could see increased share market volatility.
Shane Oliver
AMP
Macro

RBNZ holdings the OCR steady at 5.5%, European Manufacturing PMI data broadly higher

We look at five of the biggest developments across global markets for the week ending 24 May 2024
FMG
MQG
+1
Hue Frame
Frame Funds Management
Macro

Judging post-COVID economic recoveries

The US economy stands out, with key measures of activity back in line with their pre-COVID trends, although Australia is not far behind.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

6 reasons why the RBA's next move is likely down later this year

The most likely scenario for the central bank to hold rates ahead of cuts starting later this year
Shane Oliver
AMP
Macro

How understanding demographic shifts can help investors

Investors understand the power of demographic information. Back in the early 1990s, when I was presenting to investors at ASX-sponsored conferences, I recall...
+1
Roger Montgomery
Montgomery Investment Management
Macro

Signal and noise in the April unemployment rate

Unemployment has picked up, but the labour market remains tight with the RBA raising its estimate of the NAIRU.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Chinese CPI rises marginally to 0.3% y/, US Core Producer Price Index rises 0.5%

We look at five of the biggest developments across global markets for the week ending 17 May 2024
BHP
+2
Hue Frame
Frame Funds Management
Macro

Finally, some good inflation news

Markets are certainly relieved that last night's US inflation number has reduced the tail risk of another hike.
Seema Shah
Principal Asset Management
Macro

What would you change if you were Treasurer for a day?

In this bonus episode of Signal or Noise, our three economists share what they would do if they were Treasurer for a day.
Hans Lee
Livewire Markets
Macro

Could the Federal Budget drive an RBA rate rise?

And the other highlights investors need to know.
BKW
COL
+10
Sara Allen
Livewire Markets
Macro

What the Federal Budget means for the RBA and your investments

Structural budget deficits remain in the medium term as the revenue windfall fades and spending remains high.
Shane Oliver
AMP
Macro

What will the RBA do next? (And what does it mean for your money?)

The first ever Signal or Noise Economists' Roundtable parses through the key policy issues affecting today's investing environment.
Hans Lee
Livewire Markets
Macro

Central banks constantly say they are "data dependent". Here's why you should ignore them

The Fed is going to cut rates, but slowing growth means it may not be the time to be chasing equity returns.
Isaac Poole
Ascalon Capital
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