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Macro

Understand the fast-changing domestic and global economic forces under the tectonic plates driving our markets.

Macro

Macro Monday: The prospect of higher rates rattles equities

The ASX200 pushed ever higher last week taking its advance to ~12% year to date but following sharp losses in the US on Friday this week’s going to start off on a...
James Gerrish
Market Matters
Macro

Jobs data not as strong as it seems...

In the AFR today I write about what an incredible week it was for markets. The fourth-largest monthly decline in unemployment on record and yet the Aussie dollar fell...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

The underemployment problem

The RBA has published a fascinating new research paper on "underemployment", which has increased noticeably since the GFC. The underemployment rate is defined as the...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

The collapse in foreign workers has boosted job vacancies and reduced unemployment

The closure of Australia's international border has seen a collapse of non-resident employment as foreign workers returned home. This has contributed to the largest...
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

US Corporate Capex Comeback

Corporate capex growth crashed in 2020 for understandable reasons.Commodity capex in particular contracted at a record pace and now its weighting of total S&P500 capex...
Callum Thomas
Topdown Charts
Macro

A unique recovery: the handoffs commence

While the equities rally since the pandemic low has been largely uninterrupted, its leadership has undergone a marked transition. In 2020, stocks rebounded on the...
Matt Peron
Matt Peron
Janus Henderson
Macro

Why PIMCO’s Adam Bowe suspects inflation is a transitory fad

Throughout our discussions with the managers of Australia’s top-rated funds, it’s become evident that their views around the biggest tail risk for markets have...
Livewire Exclusive
Livewire Markets
Macro

Get ready to pivot!

We are in the fourth and final mini reflation cycle of this 12-year bull market. Price signals across capital markets are suggesting we have reached an important...
Justin Braitling
Watermark Funds Management
Macro

Evidence of excess liquidity is everywhere

The famous 1955 quote by then US Federal Reserve Chairman William McChesney Martin was that “The Federal Reserve… is in the position of the chaperone who has ordered...
Jonathan Rochford
Narrow Road Capital
Macro

Frydenberg’s miracle, saving AAA rating

In the AFR this weekend, I write that make no mistake, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has pulled off a minor miracle saving Australia’s prized AAA credit rating, which has...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

What lies ahead for Australia's economy?

In March 2020 the Reserve Bank (RBA) of Australia was the first central bank to cut interest rates explicitly in response to the Covid-19 outbreak. To further support...
Schroders Australia
Schroders
Macro

Beware the inflation snap-back: How to invest (part 4 of 4)

This is the final in our series of four posts on the contrarian view for inflation. This time we look at what to do from an investment perspective. The inflation...
Damien Klassen
Nucleus Wealth
Rapid Fire

Where this fundie sees EM opportunities despite lingering COVID, war risk

The US$1.9 trillion of stimulus the US government tipped into its economy in the first quarter of this year continues to flow through world markets. This bodes well...
Glenn Freeman
Livewire Markets
Macro

Markets are ‘drunk with liquidity’, but is a hangover imminent?

The juxtaposition between asset prices scaling new highs while much of the world remains closed for business has investors and advisers wondering where we are in the...
Livewire Exclusive
Livewire Markets
Macro

Beware the inflation snap-back: The inventory supercycle (part 3 of 4)

This is the third in a series of four posts on the contrarian view for inflation, this time dealing with the inventory supercycle. Part one: See here. This dealt...
Damien Klassen
Nucleus Wealth
Macro

Does adding leverage reduce returns?

A recent academic paper found that adding leverage to an equity portfolio increased volatility but decreased returns for the vast majority of investors. The higher...
FMG
Jonathan Rochford
Narrow Road Capital
Macro

AFR's John Kehoe confirms RBA's QE3 will likely be $135bn or more

In line with our analysis earlier in the week, the AFR's Economics Editor, John Kehoe, far and away the most accurate and precise RBA media conduit, has today...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Off the Charts! The Coppleson v Grantham bubble-battle, a US$12 bn exodus from Asia, and a 'who-needs-Tesla' US$70 bn EV IPO

Bubble, bubble - toil or take profits? This week we heard from bubble spruikers and deniers alike and both posed solid arguments for you to peruse here. Certainly, the...
Livewire Exclusive
Livewire Markets
Expert Insights

Releasing the pressure-valve on the investible universe

Inflation has emerged as the word on everyone's lips as economies reopen and stimulus continues to flow. But Jasmin Argyrou, portfolio manager and director at Credit...
Livewire Exclusive
Livewire Markets
Macro

RBA sets up July to move to open-ended QE, likely exceeding $100 billion

The RBA has provided clear signalling that in July it will move to a new form of open-ended quantitative easing (QE) at the current run-rate of $5 billion of bond...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Beware the inflation snap-back: the China problem (part 2 of 4)

This is the second in a series of four posts I’m publishing on the contrarian view for inflation. Part one: See here. This dealt with inflation today not being the...
Damien Klassen
Nucleus Wealth
The Rules of Investing

6 essential takeaways from my exclusive interview with Jeremy Grantham

It’s not every day you get the opportunity to speak with a legend like Jeremy Grantham. But I’ve been lucky enough to do so twice in recent weeks (the first time,...
Patrick Poke
A Rich Life
The Rules of Investing

Grantham: This is a bubble, this is serious

Jeremy Grantham is famous for his ability to pick bubbles. The co-founder and Long-Term Investment Strategist at GMO Investment and Asset Management correctly called...
The Rules of Investing
Livewire Markets
Macro

Avoiding the taper tantrum

In the AFR this weekend I write that for all the inflation hype, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s challenge has been a persistent paucity of price pressures, and...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

State Street: “Bond risk has doubled but big banks safer than ever”

We’re in a place we could never have foreseen just 18 months ago, and in more ways than one. COVID, of course, blindsided everyone. But looking back a little over a...
Glenn Freeman
Livewire Markets
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